Only one team can win

Watching Gary Lineker's 'Can England win the world cup?' where a bunch of talking heads give their opinion on why we bombed in South Africa so spectacularly, I have to point out - it's seven games every four years, and only one team out of 32 can win!

This makes it a rather difficult affair to predict -we can talk about how good Spain are right now, but that does not make it a foregone conclusion that they were always going to win, the best teams don't always win

I don't claim we went out on luck, we were shocking, or indeed that Spain won on luck - but this tournament was a rarity in that nearly everyone's tip actually won - they were overwhelming favourites and the best team, and they actually won

Imagine if they had lost to a decent Dutch or German side? Perfectly possible, and another miserable defeat in Spain's long, long record of failure, one goal in any of those four knock-out games could have swung it against them and now they would be picking over the bones of why their own 'golden generation' missed their chance, just as we did in 86, 90...and 06

Instead, we focus on how great Spain are, and forget entirely that most World Cup results hang on a couple of incidents and a bit of luck - who seriously tipped Italy in 2006? And who (of non-Italian descent) thinks they were the best side?

It's perfectly fine to look at Spain's focus on Spanish players and their investment in local talent, all good points, as is a winter break - but they won't guarantee you a cup, they won't even guarantee you one from five, and this whole tactical issue surrounding Spanish 'technique' and English 'power' is nonsense

Holding the ball and stroking it around the pitch may have worked in this world cup, but Spain could have just as easily fallen flat on their faces with a bad draw or a dodgy penalty, they were technically very good at the past two cups - but they fell to some very odd results in both tournaments, Italy went on to win 2006 against a more favoured German side

The irony is, Lineker then went on to pour praise on an admittedly very good German side - who play with pace and youth, not Spanish technique, tipping them for 2014

Great potential from a young side, but that's all it is, just potential - they will certainly be in the mix in 2014, they always are, but if they don't win, what then? How are they any different to us in 2002-6?

If he had been talking about England's prospects there would be a word for that: 'cockiness'

The fact is, the Germans haven't won in twenty years despite five top 8 finishes and 3 consecutive semi finals (one being at home) - in this event coming second is the same as coming thirty-second, you may get respect, but not a winner's medal, failure in 2014 would be 24 'years of hurt' for a side who are much better at winning these things than us

So in truth, I'd rather crash out of the cup in the second round with a run of abysmal performances than come a heroic second or third, if we actually want to win rather than enjoy the experience of ultimately losing then a bit of pain is worth it to make the national side pull their collective finger out

So can we win - yes, of course we bloody can, if you're good enough to beat anyone on the day then you can win a world cup

Beckham's Season And World Cup Dream Is Over

As everyone who isn't living in a cave is aware, David Beckham has been on loan to AC Milan in a bid to improve his chances of making the World Cup this summer. That dream has now ended after Beckham tore his Achilles tendon during yesterdays match with Chievo.

I do feel sorry for Beckham but the thing is, if I were Capello I probably would not have taken David Beckham to the World Cup anyway, and thus Fabio Capello and more importantly the England Team can be spared a media backlash from Beckhams absence in South Africa.

There is a good argument that Beckham would be an impact player, who could come from the bench and deliver a vital free kick or corner in the dying minutes of a game that could further our progress. But I would say that any player who is not in consideration of 90 minutes of action per game probably should not be going and I would also say that with the likes of Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard in the team we should not need additional set-piece takers, they are certainly good enough to build our set piece tactics around. Yes, Beckham may still be the best in the world at set piece delivery, but that is not enough on it's own in my book for special consideration.

Beckhams form has not been great for AC Milan, and he has not nailed down a first team slot. So, if he is not good enough to break into the team demolished by Man Utd recently, is he good enough for England?

I wish Beckham well and a speedy recovery and I will look forward to seeing him in his blazer giving his opinion from the BBC match box.

Wayne Bridge Rules Himself Out From England Selection

Wayne Bridge today declared that he is ruling himself out of contention for the World Cup.  In a short statement this morning the Manchester City defender claimed that his presence within the England squad was potentially divisive and as such, he did not wish to be selected.

It would seem that Bridge has done some soul-searching and decided that it is an impossible situation for him to play alongside his former friend and ex-captain.  Fabio Capello was questioned earlier today on his return to England from South Africa and refused to make a comment.

The decision also means that Capello is without his first and second choice left-backs for the Egypt friendly and attention will turn to Stephen Warnock and Leighton Baines, both of whom should get some minutes on the pitch now.

Bridge's decision vindicates Capello's decision to strip Terry of his Captaincy over the affair.  The situation of Bridge potentially being available for selection but ruling himself out because of his captains actions warrant that Terry cannot be captain if his own actions damage the strength of selection available to the manager.

Here is the statement:

"I have thought long and hard about my position in the England football team in the light of the reporting and events over the last few weeks,

"It has always been an honour to play for England. However, after careful thought I believe my position in the squad is now untenable and potentially divisive.

"Sadly therefore I feel for the sake of the team and in order to avoid what will be inevitable distractions, I have decided not to put myself forward for selection.

"I have today informed the management of this decision. I wish the team all the very best in South Africa."

Easy?

I keep hearing comments to the tune of England getting an easy ride, admittedly this is mostly from Ozzies, not quite understanding that if they hadn’t gotten Germany they still would’ve got a Spain, Brazil, Holland or Italy…

It’s true England’s draw was pretty nice – but overwhelmingly ‘easy’? Let’s look at the figures

England have the US, rank: 14^th, top team from the second pot, along with Algeria (28^th) and Slovenia (33^rd)

I think a lot of this is down to there being little respect for the US, with little fear of them due to the fact that we’ve beaten them fairly easily multiple times in recent history, and it’s only the yanks - but nevertheless they are 14^th – people would probably be more wary of Ivory Coast, who are two places below the yanks, with Drogba in their ranks – now regardless of whether you think Ivory Coast are a better side, the facts remain that the US are highly ranked, and we can really only go on that – I’ve seen some managers say that Spain and the Netherlands have it easiest - we’re all biased here, and the only piece of information we can use here is *rank*, even if it is unrepresentative, it can’t fairly be based on our opinions on individual teams

If you look at England’s average rank of opponent it’s a healthy 25, with their lowest tam being 33^rd

By far the easiest draw was Italy, facing an average rank of 47, and not a single side within the top 30 – they face Slovakia, who are one place below our opponent Slovenia, Slovakia won the group but there’s little between the two, whipping boys New Zealand, and Paraguay, the second-worst team out of the Africa/South America pot

Argentina face Nigeria, South Korea and Greece – a middling African side, one of the weakest Asian teams, and Greece, who remain 12^th in the world somehow – average rank of 28.6, on an opinionated note I see little difference between the Argies and England here – both face some sides that could cause trouble but are unlikely to, I think people consider South Korea to be a good side after their exploits in 2002, but they lag behind Japan and Australia and are little threat really, hence why they are 52^nd in the world

The Dutch meanwhile face Denmark, a middling European side, Japan, and Cameroon – they face arguably the toughest side from Africa, but the other two are of minor concern, giving an average opponent rank of 26.6, I think they have it slightly tougher than England, but nothing devastating

Spain are the only side to face a tougher average opponent than England at 24.3 – with Chile a particular concern, few would view the Swiss as a major threat, but they are ranked 18^th, while lowly Honduras make up the numbers – tough, but again not much worse than England

If you look at it, England face a higher ranked side than Spain, France, Germany, and Italy

They also have no team below 33^rd – the strongest ‘weak’ team of any group

As I said, England picked the hardest team from pot two – certainly in a toss-up between the best European side and worst pot 2 side, and the top pot 2 team and worst European side, I’d take the latter, but it’s hardly our fault the top ranked side in there isn’t rated – had we got North Korea or New Zealand then we could view that as a free-ride, but we got a fairly reasonable draw – and no-one else comes close to the ease of Italy’s group

Averages aren’t always a fair way to measure this – but with Italy it’s fairly clear they have an easy ride, up against perennial first-round drop-outs Paraguay, the weakest European side and frigging New Zealand (and I’m not discounting averages to favour England, on that alone they have the second-hardest group)

In a couple of groups average doesn’t really seem fair – in Group A France are effectively the seeds, facing two top 20 sides in Uruguay and Mexico, and S.Africa – who skew the average, and as hosts should be feared, despite their rank

In Group D, Germany get an average of 26, but with Serbia and Australia in 20^th and 21^st respectively the group is competitive, although Germany should be big favourites - meanwhile Ghana are rated because of 2006, but still linger in 37^th, technically the weakest team from the Africa pot

And then of course, there’s Group G – the average is badly skewed by North Korea in 84^th but Brazil are facing a top ten side in Portugal, and the Ivory Coast in 16^th, three good sides after two spots

We got a good draw, but it wasn’t exceptionally favourable, I see only Brazil having a very tough group, and only Italy really getting lucky

England get USA, Algeria, Slovenia - France get lucky

Have to do it don't I

Here's the full world cup draw

Group G is the group of death, Group D is the group of death-lite

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
South Africa	Argentina	ENGLAND	Germany
Mexico	Nigeria	United States	Australia
Uruguay	South Korea	Algeria	Serbia
France	Greece	Slovenia	Ghana
Group E	Group F	Group G	Group H
Netherlands	Italy	Brazil	Spain
Denmark	Paraguay	North Korea	Switzerland
Japan	New Zealand	Ivory Coast	Honduras
Cameroon	Slovakia	Portugal	Chile

We will hopefully face Australia, Ghana or Serbia in the second round, we may then get a crack at France in the quarters, but we could also end up with a run of Germany and Argentina

We can't meet Brazil or Portugal til at least the semis, nor Italy, the Netherlands or Spain, what a shame...

Mandela talks to the world

Former South African president and all-round good guy, Nelson Mandela, will address the world later today at the FIFA World Cup draw in Cape Town, via video, as the 91-year-old is very frail these days

We, at Football Banter have got exclusive access to a clip from that address

enjoy:



It would seem he's a bit short of cash...

FIFA to announce seeding

FIFA will be announcing their seeding criteria later today, I can't find out when exactly, but this afternoon at the latest I'm sure

This is where we will find out if England make it into pot A rather than the second European pot (presumably)

Jonathan Pearce has written a comprehensive blog about it, as he's going to the draw on Friday

Personally I think, knowing FIFA, that the October rankings will be highly important, because they probably won't want the 3rd placed Netherlands to miss out after fairly average 2002, 2006 and 2008 results, particularly if the 2006 finalists France get in instead, this would in turn, help us out

If they go for the two previous world cups rather than the slightly more awkward regional tournaments then we should be quids in with two quarter finals, just like in 2006 when we were somehow second seeds...despite not being ranked second, ever, and not seeing a semi-final in decades, let alone a final..so you never know!

It is of course possible that it's screwed up, FIFA seem to be incredibly pro-French and manipulated the European play-offs in the same way, but it seems fairly pointless to stir up another hornet's nest in lieu of France's dire form, and of course, that Irish incident - either way, if we miss out, it's likely the Dutch will miss out, which would be utterly retarded, so it'll be a moral victory and they'll be at least two or three teams that we can avoid in the Euro pot

It's generally a given that FIFA will have decided their seeds first and will have then decided their criteria second, hopefully they will feel Capello's side is good enough

It's all theoretical, but here's the likely pots according to Pearce

definite seeds:
SA
Brazil
Spain
Italy
---
likely:
Germany
Argentina
Netherlands
England

There will most likely be a pot of Africa and South America

Chile
Paraguay
Uruguay
Ivory Coast
Algeria
Cameroon
Ghana
Nigeria

Europe will fill in the blanks, and should be simple this time if it gets 5 seeds, leaving 8

[France]
[Portugal]
Greece
Denmark
Switzerland
Serbia
Slovenia
Slovakia

Remainders will presumably be North America, Asia and New Zealand

Honduras
Mexico
US
New Zealand
Australia
Japan
S.Korea
N.Korea

Seems pretty simple this time round - obviously a seeded spot would give us a better group, but we may we wanting to avoid France/Argentina/Portugal if we are anyway

Any thoughts on who we want (to avoid)? Also what will be the 'group of death' this time around?

I believe the term is: ROFL!

Ireland have asked for an extra world cup place

Now we know why the Irish are so over-represented in the comedy circuit

Do not heed the moaners and whingers

I keep hearing this

"Yet watching TV the day after the match, I saw footage of the Ireland/Georgia game that took place in February. "Ireland won a penalty that should never have been given. The resulting goal put the team through to the play-off against France" - Matthieu Barbarin, writing in the Guardian

Not quite - Ireland qualified by a good lead of four points over Bulgaria, that one dodgy decision was responsible for two of those points - against the bottom side in the group, whose performances weren't even counted in the decision on the final eight, Ireland comfortably made the second spot regardless of that goal

and, as I've said before, dodgy decisions across a drawn out competition tend to balance themselves out - one single incident in a 30-minute tie-breaker is not quite the same

The other line of pursuit, typically from those who like to pour scorn on popular sports, like Dominic Lawson, is the one that footballers all cheat - Henry simply didn't get caught, so the referee gets the blame much like a copper getting the blame for not stopping a murder

Very true, cheating is tolerated far too much - but he misses the point, simply because Robbie Keane would've done the same thing does not make it acceptable to allow that goal

Why not? Because it's a miscarriage of justice - we know that the goal was a blatant foul, not in some grey area of 'did he/didn't he' - any cheating is noted by the viewers and the press, and disliked by the vast majority, but if no one will act then why won't the players 'chance their arm' - they are human, after all, it doesn't mean we should write the whole game off

You see, what the disdainful commentators fail to add in their criminal metaphor is that what actually happens is, while the crime is indeed committed, even with irrefutable evidence the court does nothing to seek justice - there is no punishment

No wonder they'll have a go at burglary if they can't be tried after 10 million witnesses saw them coming out the back window with a bag marked 'swag' - "ah, but ze referee did not see eet"

It is FIFA who allow this ridiculous fiasco to continue - we all see the crime, but they refuse to act on it with video technology that could easily sort the problem out within 30 seconds, allowing the game to be decided by a couple of fallible humans watching 22 players with nothing but their own eyes, while the audience has a perfect view of every minute detail, not only breeds dishonesty in the players, but anger from the audience - hence the reaction to France's victory - there was absolutely no need to let it stand

Maybe we are hypocrites, all humans are certainly guilty of that at times, but it is the fact that we allow seen cheating to go unpunished that enrages us so, it goes against the desire for natural justice

FIFA get something right...

The latest FIFA rannkings are out and, as predicted, France and Portugal replaced England and Argentina in the top seven, owing to their UEFA play-offs

However, FIFA are actually being fair about this and it will be the October 2009 rankings that will be used for the seeds (although FIFA may use some other criteria as well)

The detailed criteria to determine the seeded teams for the Final Draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™ will be confirmed at the next meeting of the Organising Committee for the FIFA World Cup™ in Cape Town on 2 December 2009 (and announced at a press conference following the meeting).

If the criteria to determine the seeded teams were to include, as in the past, the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, then it would be the October 2009 edition of this ranking which would be considered, and this for sporting reasons. In fact, using the November 2009 edition would create an uneven situation, specifically for the European Zone, where the play-offs involving the eight best runners-up led to an imbalance in the number of qualification matches played between the teams.

This means that the top seven ranked teams considered will be:

Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Argentina, England

England's Euro 2008 failure may impact on them, but surely the French, with their truly awful Euro 2008 performance, won't get a spot either

We shall find out on 2nd December...

Anger on the Internet

In a rather unprecedented move the BBC have set up a live chat solely so we can all whinge about the Ireland robbery, technically a foreign country (yet whose citizens have certain special benefits here) but it's aroused the Brits considerably, 15,000 votes cast already (the referee and Henry getting most of the flak)

The feeling is strong, there's no doubt it was wrong - but FIFA won't do a thing, they've got their top ten nation and that's all that matters - so you may as well go and let off steam

I was barely walking when it happened and the Hand of God still gets to me, so welcome to the club boys

Ireland robbed by ghost of Maradona

Ireland, after having outplayed France and beat them at home, have been robbed by a ridiculous handball by Thierry Henry in extra time, France head to the world cup as cheats

A truly shocking turn of events - I thought we were better than that these days? What with four officials and all, I have yet to see it myself - but the BBC say it was blatant and I'll look for a video to put up

Edit: Here's the video - he's even keeping it in play with his hand - France should've had their top striker sent off before a penalty shoot out and instead they go the world cup...C'est la vie



Seriously - how can they allow such an injustice to go unchecked? It's blatant, everyone was aware of it as it happened, this isn't 1986 anymore

In other news Portugal did qualify, as I expected...

But Russia and Ukraine both surprisingly went down - Greece claimed the only goal of the two-leg tie to sink Ukraine in Kiev, and Slovenia beat a deflated Russia 2-2 on away goals

In Africa, Algeria triumphed in the deciding play off in Sudan

Slovenia were the only unseeded team to qualify from the UEFA play-offs


So much for Hiddink...

The final spot is fairly benign, between Uruguay and Costa Rica - Uruguay lead 1-0 and are at home - perhaps Costa Rica will tie it and Uruguay will throw the ball into the net in ET?

This is a travesty - I just don't understand how they can allow this to stand - it's only 15 minutes of extra time anyway...just call a penalty shoot-out!

Stop jinxing it!

Alistair Magowan at the BBC has done a feature on Portugal (or rather, Ronaldo) missing out on the world cup

We do not need you to start jabbering away about this when they have a one goal lead already! Focus on it if they actually aren't going, don't tempt fate!

And according to former Portuguese midfielder Paulo Sousa... it would be huge blow for every fan not to witness Ronaldo at his peak.
"A World Cup would not be the same without Portugal not only for the country but for football fans all over the world," he told BBC Sport.

I'm practically in tears here...

Three words: Suck it up

*They'll qualify...go bet on it now

Nine spots left

And so we approach the end of World Cup qualifying, within the next five or six days we shall have all our teams settled and ready for the big draw on 4th December, in which we will all moan about getting Sweden...again

All eyes (in Europe at least) are on Portugal, facing plucky Bosnia without their precious Ronaldo, among others - there probably wasn't a worse team for them to face, so perhaps a little justice has been served after FIFA's decision to seed the teams at the eleventh hour

There is much hope being placed on Bosnia's shoulders - who come into the play-offs having scored eight more goals than Portugal and matching them for points, despite having had to compete with Spain and Turkey while Portugal faced Denmark and Sweden, qualifying by only one point

Nevertheless, Portugal will go into this game as 1/2 favourites (although I might point out that they were also favourites for the group - that was a nice big profit) - Bosnia are at 7/1 and the draw is 10/3 - quite tasty if you ask me, but I don't wish to tempt fate

The other big game in Europe is Ireland v France - lots of home nation support for both the Irish to qualify for their fourth world cup appearance and for the dismal French to miss out on a major tournament for once - France are slight favourites at 6/4, but Trapattoni's Ireland, who are undefeated in qualifying, have shown that they can be a match for the likes of Italy, so they can certainly do the same for an undeserving French side - this may come down to away goals

Might it be worth a sneaky 5/2 on Ireland to qualify, or 13/5 on Bosnia?

In somewhat less interesting news, Russia play Slovenia and Greece play Ukraine, looks like a lot of the Eastern European landmass will be getting representation next year

Further afield Costa Rica, now on their third consecutive finals appearance, battle it out against whiney bitches Uruguay, the bookies can't tell them apart - but I would have to say that at home Costa Rica are pretty good

The other intercontinental play-off will be over first - being in New Zealand and the first leg already having been tied at 0-0 (in the desert as Ryan Nelson put it) - I've already mentioned this, but the sheer concept of New Zealand going to the world cup is mind-boggling - should they beat Bahrain they will have their tickets

Honestly, Ireland have to navigate Italy and Bulgaria, and then defeat France, New Zealand basically get a free ride to a play-off in which they face Bahrain for a place in the finals...

The remaining three spots are in Africa, to be played tomorrow afternoon

In group A, Cameroon head to bottom-placed Morrocco with a one-point lead over Gabon, who will be in Togo

In group B, Tunisia hold a two-point lead over Nigeria, both will be away, facing Mozambique and Kenya respectively

In group C, it all comes down to Egypt v Algeria - Algeria hold a three point lead, so Egypt need to win by three goals or more to qualify (two goals would mean a play-off)

And that's it, it'll all be over for seven months

Or until we all start theorising about the seedings...

Update: New Zealand are in the world cup for the first time since 1982 after a 1-0 victory over Bahrain - they will possibly be the lowest ranked team to enter, I wouldn't normally be interested, but then it's not normally a country I've been to

Ireland to face France... I think

I'm not 100% sure about this, as the BBC seem to be paying no attention to this live draw (which they advertised), and FIFA, despite claiming to have started 20 minutes ago failed to put up a stream

But here are the tentative play-offs:

France v Ireland
Portugal v Bosnia
Greece v Ukraine
Russia v Slovenia

oh and now the BBC confirm it - I guess they technically published before me

Can't say better than that really - I'd want France or Greece, hopefully they'll both be going out - good luck to Bosnia as well, what are your opinions on the draw?

One thing I must point out is this piece of reasoning from FIFA:

"The top four nations in the draw are seeded according to the latest edition of the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, published on 16 October. France (ranked number 9), Portugal (10), Russia (12) and Greece (16) go into Pot 1. Pot 2 will contain Ukraine (22), Republic of Ireland (34), Bosnia Herzegovina (42) and Slovenia (49).

However, the ranking positions of the unseeded teams does not necessarily reflect their current form, as all four nations have claimed the runners-up spots in their groups with impressive and courageous qualifying campaigns"

So, having just admitted the ranks mean nothing why have you seeded them at all!

Ireland face a challenge

The news is that Ireland will not be seeded for the UEFA play-off draw, they were never likely to be, but still...

I had not actually realised that the teams were not originally going to be seeded - apparently the decision wasn't made until September 29th (obviously I somehow overlooked that before) which frankly smacks of unfairness

As Shay Given said, if FIFA had decided to seed in the first place then fine - but to do it when France and Portugal were looking precarious is a joke, the teams were already seeded once, why should they get a second crack at the whip? Seriously, I want to see some justification - they've all gone through the same process and the 'big' teams have cocked up, now they are rewarded and protected by UEFA/FIFA

I remember when we fell foul of Russia before Euro 2008, there was much hopeful talk of us being given a lifeline - England too big to go down and all that, money from the fans etc... it was complete fantasy of course, but I think we have a bit of a case for our noses being out of joint now

I wish Ireland all the best and they are perfectly capable of beating France, Portugal, Greece or Russia - and Ukraine will be a match for any of those teams, I hope that France or Portugal - by no means in their position because of a fluke, get Ukraine or Ireland - I think Russia would be the biggest test

We shall find out on Monday at 1pm

New Zealand?

News has reached me that New Zealand will meet Bahrain in a decisive home play-off in a months time, after they drew 0-0 in Bahrain at the weekend

That's New Zealand, ranked 100 in the world, 90 minutes away from a solid world cup spot

They last entered in 1982 (surprising, I know, and their only ever world cup goals were against Scotland...) - so technically this is a bigger achievement for Bahrain (population 800,000), but who cares about them, eh?

It's still an outside shot - but surely a home tie against the 64th best team in the world is as good as it gets?...Iceland would certainly jump at it

I guess the Ozzies moving to Asia helped someone else too

Meanwhile in the next 48 hours, Maradona will show us all exactly how infallible the CONMEBOL system is as his team fail to throw away their chance - should they lose against local rivals Uruguay they are virtually assured the play-off as Ecuador will need to beat 3rd placed Chile

Although you never know- maybe Honduras will do the business

Well, that's that

And so, from Europe we have virtually all our teams settled

Qualifiers:

Denmark, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, Italy, Netherlands, almost certainly Switzerland, and probably Slovakia

The play-offs will, I believe see the top four ranked sides vs the bottom four ranked sides and so will likely be:

Russia
France
Greece
Portugal

vs

Bosnia
Ireland
Ukraine
Slovenia

Turkey, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and Croatia are the main casualties this time around - there are seven teams in the FIFA top 30 that won't be making even the play-offs - all only from Europe, the best team not going from anywhere else will probably be Egypt (32nd) - is it just me or is Europe the only federation with any sort of competitive system?

I rather handily got a double winnings offer from Betfair on Spain Argentina and Portugal at the weekend, so I will be 're-investing' in a multiplier for the final round

I've gone for a 9-way accumulator - Ukraine, Russia, England, Germany, Italy, Croatia, Portugal, Romania and Greece

Measly odds individually but combined it's about 11/4

The Business End (II)

Well that was fun

England whooped Croatia 5-1 - meaning we finally sealed qualification, and have now scored a ridiculous 31 goals in 8 games, leaving the Croats sweating on Ukraine's performance against us in Kiev

Scotland failed and went out in predictable style - Norway are through to the second round on GD

However I have some good news for the Scots - it seems that Norway are probably boned anyway - they are the only team to have finished playing and lie second from bottom in 'round two', Sweden need two points from a line up that includes Albania at home, so neither they or Portugal will likely finish below them

Ireland need a point (off Montenegro), Greece need a point off Latvia, and should Latvia win then they'll finish second and be ahead anyway, and the only other team they can rely on is Bosnia to lose 6 goals and not get a point off Spain or Estonia - So yeah, not good prospects and Scotland would have faced this rather nasty scenario themselves due to their equally mediocre results - so it was all their own fault anyway really

In other news, Spain finally qualified with an eight point cushion after a 3-0 drubbing of Estonia

Unfortunately Portugal won in Hungary - while Denmark drew in Albania, meaning they are still a point away from the victory, but Sweden did defeat Malta to keep their two point lead and keep it in their own hands - even if they probably will need something in Denmark

Northern Ireland also lost, effectively meaning they won't be making the play-offs, while Germany and Russia are now guaranteed their top two spots (like we didn't know that already) - that whole group is hanging on, and has always hung on, one game - the game in Russia on 10th October - if Russia win they qualify, anything else and Germany take the top spot

Over in South America and Ecuador did the business over Bolivia, Argentina are just kicking off and really need a win in Paraguay

The Business End

Ah, finally world cup qualification begins to get interesting - we all know if England win later they're in, and a draw would realistically do it, but what of the other lot

I must mention Portugal here - my dreams have nearly come true: fourth in the group with three left - they have no chance of winning the group - should Denmark beat Albania they will be out of reach, or else two points off Hungary and Sweden at home will do it

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Denmark	7	5	2	0	14	3	+11	17
Hungary	7	4	1	2	9	4	+5	13
Sweden	7	3	3	1	8	3	+5	12
Portugal	7	2	4	1	9	5	+4	10
Albania	8	1	3	4	4	8	−4	6
Malta	8	0	1	7	0	21	−21	1

Nope, they must be aiming for the play-offs - currently Hungary occupy that position but unfortunately they face Portugal twice and finish against leaders Denmark so let's be realistic here - we're cheering on Sweden in third - who have to go to Malta, then Denmark and then finish with Albania at home - surely six points in the bag, meaning that should Portugal not win one of their games against Hungary, they won't even be in the play-offs!!

Our best bet is to root for a draw in Hungary tonight, if that fails - let's hope Denmark give their Scandinavian cousins a hand in a month's time (sound familiar?)

In home nation news - Northern Ireland really need to get three points off leaders Slovakia tonight to stand any chance of being in the play-offs and need to hope results go in their favour (Slovenia and Poland drawing, for example) - and then they'll probably still need a result in the Czech Republic next month

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Slovakia	7	5	1	1	19	8	+11	16
Northern Ireland	8	4	2	2	13	7	+6	14
Poland	7	3	2	2	19	8	+11	11
Slovenia	7	3	2	2	10	4	+6	11
Czech Republic	7	2	3	2	8	6	+2	9
San Marino	8	0	0	8	1	37	−36	0

France are going to mighty Serbia - a home win would see them clinch the group and relegate France to play-off contenders - unfortunately despite France's poor performances I don't see any other team challenging them, unless they hand points to Austria later on

If Italy can beat draw specialists Bulgaria then that effectively seals their group as Italy - Ireland, who will just need to beat little battlers Montenegro to secure second

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Italy	7	5	2	0	11	3	+8	17
Republic of Ireland	8	4	4	0	10	6	+4	16
Bulgaria	7	2	5	0	10	5	+5	11
Cyprus	7	1	2	4	7	11	−4	5
Montenegro	7	0	4	3	6	12	−6	4
Georgia	8	0	3	5	4	11	−7	3

And then of course there's the final games in group 9 - which will decide Scotland's fate - they just need a point off those minnows the Dutch - if however they lose to the team with a 100% record and better players, they need Norway to falter - but should the Norwegians beat Macedonia then they will go out on goal difference - ah, that brings back memories...

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Netherlands	7	7	0	0	16	2	+14	21
Scotland	7	3	1	3	6	10	−4	10
Norway	7	1	4	2	7	6	+1	7
Macedonia	7	2	1	4	4	9	−5	7
Iceland	8	1	2	5	7	13	−6	5

Meanwhile I should bring your attention to South America briefly - I have heard much talk of Argentina not making it - currently fourth and only with a two point cushion with three games left - well they have to beat Peru at home, not too tough, and just Paraguay and Uruguay away - that'll be ok, right?

Except Argentina haven't won away since October 2007...

It's in the balance - they cock up then they give ground to Colombia and Ecuador, but that said, they'd have to do pretty well themselves to do that - I think there's a slim chance that the Argies could be pushed into the play-off by Ecuador, but it's slim - watch out for Paraguay v Argentina tonight/tomorrow, and victories for Ecuador or Colombia in Bolivia and Uruguay respectively might make them sweat

But regardless they'll probably make the play-offs, in a sort of reverse-Scotland situation - then they'll have to play the US or Costa Rica most likely - isn't Diego lucky qualification is so forgiving in the Americas?

So in short - will England win? Will Portugal cock it up? Will NI, Scotland and Argentina make it? Please feel free to tell me just how wrong I am

Now, where's that Hungarian flag...

edit: Forgot that if Macedonia win in Norway and Scotland lose they will also go through on a much sicker GD - so no holds barred action in Norway tonight!