The Business End

Ah, finally world cup qualification begins to get interesting - we all know if England win later they're in, and a draw would realistically do it, but what of the other lot

I must mention Portugal here - my dreams have nearly come true: fourth in the group with three left - they have no chance of winning the group - should Denmark beat Albania they will be out of reach, or else two points off Hungary and Sweden at home will do it

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Denmark	7	5	2	0	14	3	+11	17
Hungary	7	4	1	2	9	4	+5	13
Sweden	7	3	3	1	8	3	+5	12
Portugal	7	2	4	1	9	5	+4	10
Albania	8	1	3	4	4	8	−4	6
Malta	8	0	1	7	0	21	−21	1

Nope, they must be aiming for the play-offs - currently Hungary occupy that position but unfortunately they face Portugal twice and finish against leaders Denmark so let's be realistic here - we're cheering on Sweden in third - who have to go to Malta, then Denmark and then finish with Albania at home - surely six points in the bag, meaning that should Portugal not win one of their games against Hungary, they won't even be in the play-offs!!

Our best bet is to root for a draw in Hungary tonight, if that fails - let's hope Denmark give their Scandinavian cousins a hand in a month's time (sound familiar?)

In home nation news - Northern Ireland really need to get three points off leaders Slovakia tonight to stand any chance of being in the play-offs and need to hope results go in their favour (Slovenia and Poland drawing, for example) - and then they'll probably still need a result in the Czech Republic next month

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Slovakia	7	5	1	1	19	8	+11	16
Northern Ireland	8	4	2	2	13	7	+6	14
Poland	7	3	2	2	19	8	+11	11
Slovenia	7	3	2	2	10	4	+6	11
Czech Republic	7	2	3	2	8	6	+2	9
San Marino	8	0	0	8	1	37	−36	0

France are going to mighty Serbia - a home win would see them clinch the group and relegate France to play-off contenders - unfortunately despite France's poor performances I don't see any other team challenging them, unless they hand points to Austria later on

If Italy can beat draw specialists Bulgaria then that effectively seals their group as Italy - Ireland, who will just need to beat little battlers Montenegro to secure second

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Italy	7	5	2	0	11	3	+8	17
Republic of Ireland	8	4	4	0	10	6	+4	16
Bulgaria	7	2	5	0	10	5	+5	11
Cyprus	7	1	2	4	7	11	−4	5
Montenegro	7	0	4	3	6	12	−6	4
Georgia	8	0	3	5	4	11	−7	3

And then of course there's the final games in group 9 - which will decide Scotland's fate - they just need a point off those minnows the Dutch - if however they lose to the team with a 100% record and better players, they need Norway to falter - but should the Norwegians beat Macedonia then they will go out on goal difference - ah, that brings back memories...

Team v • d • e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Netherlands	7	7	0	0	16	2	+14	21
Scotland	7	3	1	3	6	10	−4	10
Norway	7	1	4	2	7	6	+1	7
Macedonia	7	2	1	4	4	9	−5	7
Iceland	8	1	2	5	7	13	−6	5

Meanwhile I should bring your attention to South America briefly - I have heard much talk of Argentina not making it - currently fourth and only with a two point cushion with three games left - well they have to beat Peru at home, not too tough, and just Paraguay and Uruguay away - that'll be ok, right?

Except Argentina haven't won away since October 2007...

It's in the balance - they cock up then they give ground to Colombia and Ecuador, but that said, they'd have to do pretty well themselves to do that - I think there's a slim chance that the Argies could be pushed into the play-off by Ecuador, but it's slim - watch out for Paraguay v Argentina tonight/tomorrow, and victories for Ecuador or Colombia in Bolivia and Uruguay respectively might make them sweat

But regardless they'll probably make the play-offs, in a sort of reverse-Scotland situation - then they'll have to play the US or Costa Rica most likely - isn't Diego lucky qualification is so forgiving in the Americas?

So in short - will England win? Will Portugal cock it up? Will NI, Scotland and Argentina make it? Please feel free to tell me just how wrong I am

Now, where's that Hungarian flag...

edit: Forgot that if Macedonia win in Norway and Scotland lose they will also go through on a much sicker GD - so no holds barred action in Norway tonight!