Football is way more fun than benefits

Well, I'm all tired out from the stupid child benefit cut story, so I'm having a look at the upcoming European qualifiers, see if we can't find some good bets while I'm at it

Group A is set for a top of the table clash between the Germans and the Turks - Germany are the natural favourites for the match, and the group, and you can't really question that - can't really see much from Austria, and Belgium have already lost to Turkey, whom they did beat at home in the world cup qualifying - but came five points behind - not seeing a lot of value in the markets, I could see Belgium top 2 finish at 11/2, as Turkey are 1/4 - so you could offset (i.e. put four on Turkey you'll get a pound, put that pound on Belgium you'll win £5.50) longer odds than the weaker Austrians (who've won 100%!), but I doubt it's worth it

Matches are fairly run of the mill

Group B is interesting - Ireland's always are, fancy a punt on Ireland at home to Russia at 13/8? No didn't think so, I'd want at least double, Armenia could draw against Slovakia, which would be nice for the Emerald Isle - Ireland's trip to Slovakia afterwards is vital, they need to avoid a loss in both games really - Andorra are predictably boring, the bookies are offering shite odds on all three favourites...how dull - could back Russia or Ireland as winner I guess

Group C is Northern Ireland's and is predictably open - with Italy, Serbia and Slovenia making up the main opposition, an away with in Ljubljana bodes well for them - their good home form will give them a shot, an important, but let's face it not must-win game against Italy is first, but surely the trip to the Faroe Islands must be won, Italy V Serbia is also important, NI fans will want a home win, I presume

Betting wise - 9/2 for a home win looks reasonable considering Italy are fairly weak, but maybe a draw at 11/4 would be a more appropriate punt, do you think they'll make the top 2 over Serbia? At 39/11 I think they're undervalued considering they've already got a decent away win - maybe Serbia as group winners as an outsider?

Now group D is rather interesting - a flailing France team and no discernible big teams make it highly unpredictable - how is it they always get second teams like Romania and Bosnia? Yet currently the weaker two sides - Albania and Belarus, head the group! France play Romania and have a banker against Luxembourg - six points should be expected...but then teams like France can throw away points and still qualify

The bookies are undecided on Albania and Bosnia, both offering similar prices - 2/1 on an undefeated home side looks good to me - Luxembourg over France at 20/1?? Group winner is pretty open - the bookies have France as big favourites, as they always do - but the punters triumphed substantially on their ignorance pre-2010 so we can again - Romania at 4/1, but surely Bosnia are a decent bet at 11/2 as well - play-offs last time in a group with Spain, they are underrated IMO - top 2 at 2/1 looks pretty good to me as well

In group E Sweden sit pretty after two easy home ties, but will go to Amsterdam and the Dutch are naturally big favourites, Sweden a likely second, in my view - and no good odds. In the matches only Finland v Hungary is open, just above evens - personally I quite like the Netherlands at 6/11 over Sweden - over 50% of your stake is pretty good for that surety

Group F is somewhat of a consolation for Croatia after 2010 (where's ours for 08...), Israel and Greece make up the main threat, although not losing their trip to the Middle East is fairly vital, Greece against Israel will also be important...if you actually care. Fancy aforementioned Croatia at 6/4?

Croatia to win the group at 8/11 is again a fairly dull price, but a sound investment, I think - Israel in a top 2 for 28/17 is about the best I can see otherwise

Group G time...

Seriously...1/5 is the best we can get on England topping the group? This is why you never get good value on England - seriously far too much attention on it - Germany are 3/10, the Netherlands are 2/5 - only Spain give worse odds, admittedly Montenegro have really helped sure it up for us, but one in five? That said - you interested in the Swiss at 19? However second is quite open, Switzerland may be alright at 13/10 and are Wales really as bad as 7/1? Probably - personally I would avoid Montenegro at an inflated 6/4 - unless a serious shock occurs that will get longer by next week

Oh well, despite the outright odds being daft the England match is rather reasonable at 1/4 - 25% back on a game England will win, you can thank the Welsh for that - it probably would've been 1/15 before the group started - Wales against Bulgaria is hard to call, so you can opt for either at just shy of 2/1 - Switzerland at 1/2 against the Welsh again looks a good value banker considering Wales' away form - although they do like to block the goal - fancy Montenegro at home in their first tie? 17/10 is a bit shorter than I'd like

Moving on to Group H, Norway sit five points clear of favourites Portugal, while Denmark are once again ahead of the greasy ones (after one game..) - the bookies still haven't cottoned on and once again they offer a bargain at 2/1, slightly worse than last year, but christ, you'd think they'd get it by now

However, maybe put the chequebook away for now - Denmark visit Portugal first and a fairly predictable loss, or even draw will push those odds in your favour - of course should they lose at home this won't happen, so it's a judgement call - I don't expect Denmark to win, even if Cyprus did put four past them...However it's unsurprising that I have disdain for odds of 8/13 for a home win - a draw at 3/1 or Denmark at nearly 6/1 if you feel like a punt

Denmark's game against Cyprus is of little interest, although the time to get the good odds is probably between the two games, but Cyprus Norway may offer something if you fancy the Norges...or indeed the Cypriots, the best opportunity may be the Iceland Portugal game however - the weakest side in the group maybe, but 7/1 for a home win is tasty, or just over 3/1 on the draw - but I'd watch Portugal's form under new manager Bento in the first game before making that choice

Group I - or should that be group 'aye' (sorry), the Scots are doing well with only two points dropped from two games, despite the win being that rather scary game against Liechtenstein - however they stand zero chance against Spain and must look to second along with the Czechs and Lithuania, they play in Prague first - avoiding a loss is pretty important in such a small group which also happens to have the champions in it, but an it wouldn't necessarily be the end - Spanish victory over Lithuania, and Liechtenstein holding the Czechs would be preferable, they don't play again til September - I doubt they want to be in third or fourth for 11 months

A draw in Prague could be on the cards (45/17), and indeed a draw in the micro-state at 13/2 may be good value (I say good 'value'...not 'likely') - the outright odds for this group are rather shocking, clearly too mediocre for the bookies - Spain offer a 50% return in Glasgow, might be worth it

Have some free money

God I love Beat Victor - it's on virtually every week this year - I think I've won 40 quid out of it since August, all at no risk! I think Victor's a bit barmy, must be worth the extra business I guess

Anyway, enough fawning, Viv Anderson's preds for this week are

Bolton 2-0 City (eh?)

Chelsea 3-0 Everton

United 1-1 Villa

Liverpool 1-0 Arsenal

I've gone for:

City 1-2

Chelsea 2-0

Villa 1-2

and  Liverpool 2-1

I have also got a weekend multiplier going on - Stoke, Birmingham, Sunderland and Spurs all to win

Well, that's that

And so, from Europe we have virtually all our teams settled

Qualifiers:

Denmark, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, Italy, Netherlands, almost certainly Switzerland, and probably Slovakia

The play-offs will, I believe see the top four ranked sides vs the bottom four ranked sides and so will likely be:

Russia
France
Greece
Portugal

vs

Bosnia
Ireland
Ukraine
Slovenia

Turkey, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and Croatia are the main casualties this time around - there are seven teams in the FIFA top 30 that won't be making even the play-offs - all only from Europe, the best team not going from anywhere else will probably be Egypt (32nd) - is it just me or is Europe the only federation with any sort of competitive system?

I rather handily got a double winnings offer from Betfair on Spain Argentina and Portugal at the weekend, so I will be 're-investing' in a multiplier for the final round

I've gone for a 9-way accumulator - Ukraine, Russia, England, Germany, Italy, Croatia, Portugal, Romania and Greece

Measly odds individually but combined it's about 11/4

More Beat Viv

Beat Viv is back for the second week in a row - yay!

I managed to get a plump zero last week, while the establishment actually got one (I don't believe VC himself ever tipped a game right) - so maybe it won't be as profitable as before,

But whatever, it's free

Here are Viv's selections

United 3-0 Sunderland
Arsenal 4-0 Blackburn
Everton 1-0 Stoke
Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool

I will stick my neck out a bit and venture away from my other predictions

Tarquin:

United 2-0 Sunderland
Arsenal 4-0 Blackburn
Everton 2-0 Stoke
Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool

not many away goals...

post your entries!

Are Liverpool worth it?

I would like some opinions - are Liverpool worth it at 5/1 to win the league?

I ask because I feel this is reasonably good odds - even if it is unlikely that Liverpool will finally win the league surely a team that finished only 4 points off the pace last year is better than a 5/1 shot?

In that sense the bet is valuable, I am of course wary that the odds may get longer in a few months - I think they slipped to 13/1 at some point last year, but I'm just interested to see if people think 5/1 is a fair price

Maximising profit

I love international football - it's my best earner

Unfortunately the friendlies aren't particularly enticing and the qualifiers are ridiculous - Germany v Azerbaijan, Portugal v Liechtenstein, even France have the Faroes (I will happily lose a bet for that tho)

So I decided to maximise the Czech Republic's 4/6 against Belgium - turned it into a nice 5/4 with the minnow games tied into an accumulator - I think 5/4 is a rather decent return for the risk on the Czechs