I like those odds!

So England qualified with room to spare, as I always maintained

OK, technically we did need a point in the fortress of Montenegro - but that's relying on Montenegro winning in Switzerland, after they've already secured the play off - big whoop, it's been pretty straightforward, despite all the usual melodrama from the tv pundits - I predict a five or six point win in the end

Granted a stupid draw at Wembley with the Swiss was unfortunate, but otherwise the only hurdle has been the mighty minnows - and well done to them for defeating three larger nations in qualifying, they deserve the second spot - I look forward to a rematch in group H next year

Anyway, ignoring Rooney's latest drama and a whingeing Neville, let's look at one remaining set of fixtures

Five teams have now sewn up their groups, and Sweden and Montenegro have cemented their play offs

Group A is a bit of a doozie - Belgium lead but need a win in Germany to prevent Turkey taking the spot as they face the useless Azerbaijan -

My tips, home wins all round and Turkey to get second

Group B: Russia have effectively qualified with a point against Andorra required for the official victory, the real interest is in Ireland who only need to avoid defeat against third-placed Armenia

My tip: surely Ireland through to another play-off, at least a draw, if not a win

Group C: Only Serbia can make the difference here, only a win in Slovenia will knock off Estonia, who are waiting on results - you do care right?

My tip: Serbia at 5/6 ain't bad considering Slovenia's home record

Group D is a top of the table clash as France tackle Bosnia - avoiding defeat will be good enough, I'm tipping France to at least draw...surely

E is finished - I expect the Dutch will maintain their 100% record in Sweden, as neither have anything left to play for, I'm backing Hungary over Finland and Moldova over some minnows

F is tricky - Greece lead Croatia by two heading to Georgia for at least a point, Croatia should beat Latvia but can only win if Greece lose - otherwise it's as you were, Israel get three points in Malta

I expect Greece will win the group - even if they don't win the game

G, as I'm sure you know is done - I'm tipping Bulgaria over Wales and the Swiss over Montenegro

H is the fun group - three teams still in it, although Norway need some ludicrous scorelines to knock off Portugal, otherwise it's a straight top two clash - Denmark need to win at home to take the group, otherwise they'll be in the play-offs

My tip: I think Denmark might win, be a close game though - surely Norway will beat Cyprus, qualification is unlikely but they might as well live in hope

Group I: The much anticipated Spain v Scotland game dominates here - you can make up your own minds about this one - considering the joy around their sole away win in Liechtenstein I can't be that confident, but the hope lies in Lithuania, who have so far only been defeated at home by Spain and won in Prague - Scotland don't need to do a thing if they win, but if they draw the Czechs go through on head to head - I think the best bet for Scotland would be a draw in both ties

Good luck to them I say, been a while since Scotland had any luck - the odds from my title are 20/1 for the win, 7/1 for the draw, by the way

I think short odds on Czech republic are a bit harsh to be honest - the draw is a decent 3/1, and home win over 5/1 - not bad I think

2 places below France

Football rankings are a strange thing

A team wins 12 games in its entire history and rises to 17th in the world

Another team crashes out of a world cup with one goal scored, struggles against Belarus, Norway and Austria in the same period and is ranked 15th

Which is stranger? I ask you

Anyway, the fact remains that Montenegro, who were below Wales 18 months ago, were placed in the same pot as the French, and somehow we have got them again, only this time as second seeds as opposed to fifth...

I can only conclude that their impressive results weigh heavily due to their lack of competitive history, and that teams outside the top 20 really are quite bad

You would think this would be a good thing, avoiding teams like Russia, Serbia and France to play a small, familiar side who are unlikely to remain consistent

But alas, no, ever the pessimists we despair at being drawn with both hosts of the 2012 European championships

Really?

While Ukraine are certainly not the easiest team in the pot, and they did, as Capello pointed out, beat us before South Africa - we had already qualified at the time, and they haven't slipped to 45th for no reason (admittedly one being no competitive fixtures due to hosting) - they have won two games in the past year

It's clutching at straws - either we get a ridiculously easy group and we find it boring, or seem arrogant, or we don't and say it's difficult

How about we just say it's pretty decent? Would you really feel that much better had we got Switzerland again? They were also a decent side a few years ago, qualifying for more tournaments than Ukraine ever have, but their collapse in this campaign means we ignore that for some reason

Ireland, Czech Rep, Bosnia or Israel all would have provided a similar issue - it's the middle pot, and frankly any team would have done, Ireland would've been nice, but possibly a bigger problem

Truth is we should qualify, just as we should qualify for 2012 (and will) and just as we qualified for 2010, despite the hand-wringing

As for Poland, despite a decent showing prior to 2008, when they took top spot from Portugal, they really aren't a threat these days - by seeding standards they were the lowest available from pot 4 - would you really care if it was Romania or Bulgaria (Scotland)? Fact is, we got the lower ranked sides from every pot except Montenegro - and that could be seen as inflated and is a team we know

The less said about Moldova and San Marino the better

Nope, if there's anything to worry about it's the quality of England, not the opposition, the other Home Nations are the ones with the worry

Scotland and Wales did reasonably well being together - more chance of one being through, Croatia, Serbia and Belgium is hardly the group of death - I doubt either will come through, but it's much better than a five team group with Spain, the Dutch or us

Ireland get a tough break with Germany, but that's always likely to happen - battling it out with Sweden for second is probably a better prospect than their current campaign for 2012

Northern Ireland probably got the worst luck - Portugal and Russia are likely to dominate

Elsewhere, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain are all handed pretty straightforward groups (the only three I would rank as in any way better than ours)

France, for once, received some bad luck and are now trading on Spain possibly not being so good in the next two to three years...right

Group G for 'Greece', again shows the farcical nature of the rankings - how can a team that has won one match in a major tournament in seven years,  be a top seed - they are a self-fulfilling prophesy - they win 2004 so they get ranked highly, get easy draws as a result and continue to qualify because they never face opposition - what an amazing group as Slovakia and Bosnia battle the mighty Greeks for top spot...

Group E is just as bad for non-entities but frankly Norway deserve their position after sticking it to Portugal and being screwed out of the play-offs in 2010 qualifying

My predictions for European teams going straight to Brazil

Croatia, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, England, Spain, Norway, Portugal, Slovakia (that's my frivolous one)

Play-offs:

France, Ukraine, Greece, Russia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ireland, Denmark, Serbia - obviously one will miss out, but I'm hardly going to call it

Anyway, enjoy

It's time to qualify

...For one of those corrupt events, if you get my meaning

Anyway, my feelings about the laughable FIFA aside, England play Switzerland and finally may seal their qualification in what has been the longest drawn qualification process for yonks

Unfortunately only game five is being played, but should England beat Switzerland and Montenegro beat Bulgaria then it will officially knock out Wales and all but confirm the two top spots, simple as that

I don't see very good odds - Montenegro are not worth evens, they may win, but they are ultimately unreliable, despite their form

In slightly more fun groups, Germany have two away games in Austria and Azerbaijan, already with a five point lead two wins will effectively cement their obvious victory, personally I think Germany at 2/5 in Austria is pretty decent odds

Belgium v Turkey is crucial to these two teams - a home win is required to keep the Flemish in the hunt for second, this is a punt but Belgium at 5/4 is a reasonable tip as the Turks have been a bit off lately

Group B is typically Irish - three teams on 10 points after five games, Russia and Slovakia have pretty simple home games, the Irish need a result in Macedonia, to be honest it's not looking good with Russia having four home games left and Slovakia three

Group C is still open for Northern Ireland, Italy will cement their position with a win over Estonia and Slovenia have three to gain from the Faroes - that's it...two games (ok, three, but one is pointless)

The muddling French lead group D but still face the tougher tests, the trip to Belarus is probably the game of the round actually - I can dream, can't I? Belarus have won in France so I quite like 13/2 odds for the home side, they also have a home tie against Luxembourg, so that'll keep the pressure on

Bosnia remain in the hunt, playing Albania and then travelling to Romania - I doubt it'll come to anything, France are surely top two, but they do love to try!

The Dutch have won six of six, but have a rest and haven't got a huge lead just yet, but are surely group winners, San Marino will be handing three points to Finland and Hungary, Sweden are going to Moldova and then face neighbours Finland - grudge match?? Not really, second is Hungary or Sweden - do you really care?

Group F remains tight, and will remain so until the end - Croatia at 1/3 over Georgia isn't bad, Greece have their own banker, and arguably so do Israel, so it's probably as you were - Croatia and Greece all the way

Skipping to H, where Norway are ahead of Portugal, which is nice - all I can say is hooway the Norge! A draw would be very nice in Lisbon, Denmark are probably out of it at this point but should be able to beat their cousins in Iceland and may be able to screw over Portugal in October - worrying times for the greasy one even if they beat Noway

It all comes down to Denmark - assuming Portugal win all three easier games they will go in on 16 points, if Norway can beat Cyprus and Iceland they would realistically need a point in Copenhagen

Draw at 4/1 anybody?

In Scotland's mini-group there's a whole one game, Lithuania at 1/2 is not that bad, if uninspiring, Spain win the group, yay

Too funny

Gareth Bale...

Truly the Welsh are the most cursed of all Brits

Anyway, it's been a while since we've had some qualifiers, and frankly thanks to the small groups the number of games has been far too low - eight games in two years?

Still, we must make do

As I've said before, England's group is pretty much sewn up - Montenegro have left the door wide open for England, assuming they can avoid defeat in Cardiff (that's me being pessimistic)

Bulgaria play Switzerland in a technically crucial game for both - only the winner will come away with any chance, a draw would be virtual suicide - I'd favour Bulgaria for home form, they are physically tougher, but considering the only points either have got were from Wales there's not much in it

In Group A Germany have a whole round to play Kazakhstan at home (why?? Who negotiated their fixtures?) and continue on their road to full points

Austria will duke it out with Belgium and then go to Turkey, and Belgium get an easy three points at home in what should be a very interesting tight race for second...*yawn*

Group B is the Irish, who always seem to do their level best to fall at the last hurdle, they would do well if Armenia held up Russia, while they have a Macedonia game to not cock up a la England, Slovakia get three points in northern Spain/southern France

In the typically favourable Italy group NI have Serbia away and Slovenia at home, surely four points minimum is required, I'd fancy Serbia in Estonia and my money is on Slovenia when they host Italy

In group D France do their level best to secure a play-off just for the hell of it, but will, in yet another odd piece of scheduling, head to Luxembourg in their sole tie, it's the two away ties in September that will be their downfall - again with the weird fixtures, Albania v Belarus is a 'key' game, how interesting - Bosnia should get three off Romania, who themselves get an easy three off the minnows after

In group E it's all windmills and clogs as the Netherlands face a double with Hungary, I would like to see Sweden keep up with a win over Moldova

Group F is the one that shows the twisted process that is seeding...but anyway Croatia go to Georgia, Greece get three in Malta, do you care about Israel v Georgia? There's only two teams of note here

Skipping England to H - Norway remain 2 points ahead of the cheats with a game in hand - they play Denmark in a no-win situation for myself, I guess Norway would be a better result, Cyprus v Iceland is at least guaranteed to yield more points than the two teams have combined

Finally to Spain and Scotland in I, you may have noticed a welcome lack of Scottish news this week - mainly because they're not playing, should Spain win against the Czechs and then win in, gasp, Lithuania they will have effectively won the group, the Czechs can push on for second with a win over Liechtenstein - leaving Scotland with the unlikely task of at least winning their two remaining home ties in September

This rounds up the rather dull weekend of action

Wales can win...

Yes Gareth, Wales can beat England

Just as they could have beaten Bulgaria, Switzerland and Montenegro...or Ireland, Sweden or Croatia

For the sake of fairness they have won (or indeed, not lost) one game during that time - Luxembourg!!

Ttuly, they are capable of anything on their day

Update

Well, that was interesting...and profitable


I knew someone would draw out of the home nations - and it was NI, not a bad little earner (this was a bonus, as I decided to use all those free bets I get from Beat Victor)

But in more realistic betting chances my multiples came through, Spain scared me witless until I realised they kicked off at 9, not 8, and they scored 2 minutes after the break - I took an enhanced multiplier and gambled on Portugal, despite my previous concerns, but I rightly stayed away from Italy - got 12/5 on them, the Dutch and Germans

The only loss was Serbia in my 10-way multiplier, a shame, but that's accounted for to start with anyway

A shame that I missed the boat on Montenegro, but I stick with the contention that they weren't worth the price of 17/10 - this has however, lengthened the English odds slightly - shall look at that tomorrow

Group G is rather interesting now, 9 points for the minnows out of three games is impressive by any standards, and formidable when you think 24 is the max, outside of the obvious favourites, only Bulgaria have even got any points from the opening three matches - Wales and/or Switzerland will remedy that in their game on Tuesday

Looking at permutations, one has to expect English success - and Switzerland would still seem to be the obvious choice for second, having three home games left and England done with, so Montenegro will need at least another 3 or 4 points to stand a chance, stand out games for them will be Switzerland away, which may be a crucial final game, Bulgaria at home and a trip to Cardiff - one win and a draw should do it I think, unless of course they beat us and...

Wales are dead and buried as far as I'm concerned - still to play England, they lose in Basel then that's it frankly

The draw for Northern Ireland is an excellent point they were expected, on paper, to not have - and the group remains ridiculously open, I was wrong about Serbia - so I'm glad I mostly opted against betting on them, a home loss to Estonia is excellent news for NI, one hopes - a win in the Faroe Islands is needed to keep ahead of the pack, that will leave them with seven points from nine, and four home games out of seven, with the group favourites already held - looks good, as always...

Ireland's 3-2 loss to Russia was not helpful, but not catastrophic, particularly as Slovakia fell to Armenia - this leaves Ireland in the predictable position of needing to battle Slovakia...and guess where they're going next week? That's right, the much maligned Bratislava, avoid defeat, then do well at home, overcoming the tricky Macedonians on the way, and they can get a play-off

Scotland's loss in the Czech Rep is arguably not too bad, the draw with Lithuania was worse - but fortunately they also won in Prague (so maybe it should be Lithuania we're fearing), leaving it open - both sides have to face the champions twice, and I think once again this will be a very low scoring group behind Spain, but Scotland have the home advantage now - they need home form against Lithuania and the Czechs, and a banker in the micro-state - three games, that's it, if Spain hold up and they beat the Czechs and Lithuania then they cannot be overtaken

Meanwhile, away from the Isles, Norway motored on with another crucial away win to keep a five point lead over Portugal who did ultimately defeat the Danes, for Norway to win the group they probably need to win all three home games, if they can hold off the Danes they should at least secure a play-off this time (they were eliminated rather cruelly for being the worst qualifier last year) - conversely, Denmark will need to beat Norway both times and hope Portugal can also beat Norway at home, and it may all boil down to their final game at home to Portugal - who have created their own deficit and may need every single match to be a win now, it's pretty much wide open! From our perspective, on Tuesday Denmark need to ensure victory against Cyprus, while a Portugal slip up in Iceland would help everyone

In group D, all major rivals drawing paves the way for a French comeback, for whatever reason they play tomorrow - there's little I can say, on paper they should top the group, but it's totally unpredictable

Groups E and F remain as expected, as does the Germans' (A) - that looks wrapped already, with Turkey a likely second


Now I need my investment bets to come through next week

Football is way more fun than benefits

Well, I'm all tired out from the stupid child benefit cut story, so I'm having a look at the upcoming European qualifiers, see if we can't find some good bets while I'm at it

Group A is set for a top of the table clash between the Germans and the Turks - Germany are the natural favourites for the match, and the group, and you can't really question that - can't really see much from Austria, and Belgium have already lost to Turkey, whom they did beat at home in the world cup qualifying - but came five points behind - not seeing a lot of value in the markets, I could see Belgium top 2 finish at 11/2, as Turkey are 1/4 - so you could offset (i.e. put four on Turkey you'll get a pound, put that pound on Belgium you'll win £5.50) longer odds than the weaker Austrians (who've won 100%!), but I doubt it's worth it

Matches are fairly run of the mill

Group B is interesting - Ireland's always are, fancy a punt on Ireland at home to Russia at 13/8? No didn't think so, I'd want at least double, Armenia could draw against Slovakia, which would be nice for the Emerald Isle - Ireland's trip to Slovakia afterwards is vital, they need to avoid a loss in both games really - Andorra are predictably boring, the bookies are offering shite odds on all three favourites...how dull - could back Russia or Ireland as winner I guess

Group C is Northern Ireland's and is predictably open - with Italy, Serbia and Slovenia making up the main opposition, an away with in Ljubljana bodes well for them - their good home form will give them a shot, an important, but let's face it not must-win game against Italy is first, but surely the trip to the Faroe Islands must be won, Italy V Serbia is also important, NI fans will want a home win, I presume

Betting wise - 9/2 for a home win looks reasonable considering Italy are fairly weak, but maybe a draw at 11/4 would be a more appropriate punt, do you think they'll make the top 2 over Serbia? At 39/11 I think they're undervalued considering they've already got a decent away win - maybe Serbia as group winners as an outsider?

Now group D is rather interesting - a flailing France team and no discernible big teams make it highly unpredictable - how is it they always get second teams like Romania and Bosnia? Yet currently the weaker two sides - Albania and Belarus, head the group! France play Romania and have a banker against Luxembourg - six points should be expected...but then teams like France can throw away points and still qualify

The bookies are undecided on Albania and Bosnia, both offering similar prices - 2/1 on an undefeated home side looks good to me - Luxembourg over France at 20/1?? Group winner is pretty open - the bookies have France as big favourites, as they always do - but the punters triumphed substantially on their ignorance pre-2010 so we can again - Romania at 4/1, but surely Bosnia are a decent bet at 11/2 as well - play-offs last time in a group with Spain, they are underrated IMO - top 2 at 2/1 looks pretty good to me as well

In group E Sweden sit pretty after two easy home ties, but will go to Amsterdam and the Dutch are naturally big favourites, Sweden a likely second, in my view - and no good odds. In the matches only Finland v Hungary is open, just above evens - personally I quite like the Netherlands at 6/11 over Sweden - over 50% of your stake is pretty good for that surety

Group F is somewhat of a consolation for Croatia after 2010 (where's ours for 08...), Israel and Greece make up the main threat, although not losing their trip to the Middle East is fairly vital, Greece against Israel will also be important...if you actually care. Fancy aforementioned Croatia at 6/4?

Croatia to win the group at 8/11 is again a fairly dull price, but a sound investment, I think - Israel in a top 2 for 28/17 is about the best I can see otherwise

Group G time...

Seriously...1/5 is the best we can get on England topping the group? This is why you never get good value on England - seriously far too much attention on it - Germany are 3/10, the Netherlands are 2/5 - only Spain give worse odds, admittedly Montenegro have really helped sure it up for us, but one in five? That said - you interested in the Swiss at 19? However second is quite open, Switzerland may be alright at 13/10 and are Wales really as bad as 7/1? Probably - personally I would avoid Montenegro at an inflated 6/4 - unless a serious shock occurs that will get longer by next week

Oh well, despite the outright odds being daft the England match is rather reasonable at 1/4 - 25% back on a game England will win, you can thank the Welsh for that - it probably would've been 1/15 before the group started - Wales against Bulgaria is hard to call, so you can opt for either at just shy of 2/1 - Switzerland at 1/2 against the Welsh again looks a good value banker considering Wales' away form - although they do like to block the goal - fancy Montenegro at home in their first tie? 17/10 is a bit shorter than I'd like

Moving on to Group H, Norway sit five points clear of favourites Portugal, while Denmark are once again ahead of the greasy ones (after one game..) - the bookies still haven't cottoned on and once again they offer a bargain at 2/1, slightly worse than last year, but christ, you'd think they'd get it by now

However, maybe put the chequebook away for now - Denmark visit Portugal first and a fairly predictable loss, or even draw will push those odds in your favour - of course should they lose at home this won't happen, so it's a judgement call - I don't expect Denmark to win, even if Cyprus did put four past them...However it's unsurprising that I have disdain for odds of 8/13 for a home win - a draw at 3/1 or Denmark at nearly 6/1 if you feel like a punt

Denmark's game against Cyprus is of little interest, although the time to get the good odds is probably between the two games, but Cyprus Norway may offer something if you fancy the Norges...or indeed the Cypriots, the best opportunity may be the Iceland Portugal game however - the weakest side in the group maybe, but 7/1 for a home win is tasty, or just over 3/1 on the draw - but I'd watch Portugal's form under new manager Bento in the first game before making that choice

Group I - or should that be group 'aye' (sorry), the Scots are doing well with only two points dropped from two games, despite the win being that rather scary game against Liechtenstein - however they stand zero chance against Spain and must look to second along with the Czechs and Lithuania, they play in Prague first - avoiding a loss is pretty important in such a small group which also happens to have the champions in it, but an it wouldn't necessarily be the end - Spanish victory over Lithuania, and Liechtenstein holding the Czechs would be preferable, they don't play again til September - I doubt they want to be in third or fourth for 11 months

A draw in Prague could be on the cards (45/17), and indeed a draw in the micro-state at 13/2 may be good value (I say good 'value'...not 'likely') - the outright odds for this group are rather shocking, clearly too mediocre for the bookies - Spain offer a 50% return in Glasgow, might be worth it

Only one team can win

Watching Gary Lineker's 'Can England win the world cup?' where a bunch of talking heads give their opinion on why we bombed in South Africa so spectacularly, I have to point out - it's seven games every four years, and only one team out of 32 can win!

This makes it a rather difficult affair to predict -we can talk about how good Spain are right now, but that does not make it a foregone conclusion that they were always going to win, the best teams don't always win

I don't claim we went out on luck, we were shocking, or indeed that Spain won on luck - but this tournament was a rarity in that nearly everyone's tip actually won - they were overwhelming favourites and the best team, and they actually won

Imagine if they had lost to a decent Dutch or German side? Perfectly possible, and another miserable defeat in Spain's long, long record of failure, one goal in any of those four knock-out games could have swung it against them and now they would be picking over the bones of why their own 'golden generation' missed their chance, just as we did in 86, 90...and 06

Instead, we focus on how great Spain are, and forget entirely that most World Cup results hang on a couple of incidents and a bit of luck - who seriously tipped Italy in 2006? And who (of non-Italian descent) thinks they were the best side?

It's perfectly fine to look at Spain's focus on Spanish players and their investment in local talent, all good points, as is a winter break - but they won't guarantee you a cup, they won't even guarantee you one from five, and this whole tactical issue surrounding Spanish 'technique' and English 'power' is nonsense

Holding the ball and stroking it around the pitch may have worked in this world cup, but Spain could have just as easily fallen flat on their faces with a bad draw or a dodgy penalty, they were technically very good at the past two cups - but they fell to some very odd results in both tournaments, Italy went on to win 2006 against a more favoured German side

The irony is, Lineker then went on to pour praise on an admittedly very good German side - who play with pace and youth, not Spanish technique, tipping them for 2014

Great potential from a young side, but that's all it is, just potential - they will certainly be in the mix in 2014, they always are, but if they don't win, what then? How are they any different to us in 2002-6?

If he had been talking about England's prospects there would be a word for that: 'cockiness'

The fact is, the Germans haven't won in twenty years despite five top 8 finishes and 3 consecutive semi finals (one being at home) - in this event coming second is the same as coming thirty-second, you may get respect, but not a winner's medal, failure in 2014 would be 24 'years of hurt' for a side who are much better at winning these things than us

So in truth, I'd rather crash out of the cup in the second round with a run of abysmal performances than come a heroic second or third, if we actually want to win rather than enjoy the experience of ultimately losing then a bit of pain is worth it to make the national side pull their collective finger out

So can we win - yes, of course we bloody can, if you're good enough to beat anyone on the day then you can win a world cup

1. Montenegro, 2. England

You won't read this very often

Montenegro top group G, much as Blackpool once topped the league

Hopefully they won't by about 9.30 BST, but still, England might throw it away...

This could be a lifeline for Wales, depending on how you look at it - supposedly Montnegro are the weakest side, taking three points in Bulgaria could be vital for Wales' hopes, who also need to beat them in their next home game

That is, of course, assuming Wales can actually get to six points - and that Montenegro are the weakest side, from what I've seen, they're better than Switzerland too, but maybe, just maybe we'll beat them at Wembley in a month (and I'm struggling to understand that, why is that a solitary game?)

In other news, Portugal are behind in Norway - not a death sentence but once again they may take this to the wire, 2010 qualifying saw useless bookies offer long odds on realistic favourites Denmark and I made a tidy profit, and guess who is in their group (H) yet again??

In group B, Ireland are looking good after an away win last week and Slovakia won in Russia tonight, they'll be in contention, again

France, already with a home loss to Belarus in tow, are currently struggling against Bosnia, two home games against Luxembourg and Romania up next will surely decide their fate, 3/10 to qualify? Lay, people, lay!

And...Scotland are now behind to Liechtenstein, at home, seriously - and they're already in Spain's group (I), unlucky my arse...Liechtenstein!

Wayne Bridge Rules Himself Out From England Selection

Wayne Bridge today declared that he is ruling himself out of contention for the World Cup.  In a short statement this morning the Manchester City defender claimed that his presence within the England squad was potentially divisive and as such, he did not wish to be selected.

It would seem that Bridge has done some soul-searching and decided that it is an impossible situation for him to play alongside his former friend and ex-captain.  Fabio Capello was questioned earlier today on his return to England from South Africa and refused to make a comment.

The decision also means that Capello is without his first and second choice left-backs for the Egypt friendly and attention will turn to Stephen Warnock and Leighton Baines, both of whom should get some minutes on the pitch now.

Bridge's decision vindicates Capello's decision to strip Terry of his Captaincy over the affair.  The situation of Bridge potentially being available for selection but ruling himself out because of his captains actions warrant that Terry cannot be captain if his own actions damage the strength of selection available to the manager.

Here is the statement:

"I have thought long and hard about my position in the England football team in the light of the reporting and events over the last few weeks,

"It has always been an honour to play for England. However, after careful thought I believe my position in the squad is now untenable and potentially divisive.

"Sadly therefore I feel for the sake of the team and in order to avoid what will be inevitable distractions, I have decided not to put myself forward for selection.

"I have today informed the management of this decision. I wish the team all the very best in South Africa."

Some quick points

Evening all

I have a few issues, and, as always at the moment, am short on time

Firstly, the most pressing issue is the Ashley Cole injury - I know it's a fairytale (or some sort of fictional account) that Wayne Bridge could be called up to play alongside Terry (his arch-nemesis!!!) but can we be serious for a minute here? A week ago most commentators didn't even expect Bridge to make the squad...now he's first choice? This is a man who's played about 2 hours in over 2 months, and has struggled with form all season - Fabio picks on form, not potential, and the fact that Bridge is now a contender shows how weak we are at left-back currently

Bridge is a shoe-in if Cole isn't fit because our only other proper left-backs are Leighton Baines and Stephen Warnock, personally I'd want Baines with Cole, but it shows an incredible frailty within the squad, although Cole is easily one of the best left-backs in the world, so maybe we have too-high standards

Next I have some issues with the media - number 1 - 'innocent-party' Bridge has not said a word - does he even care?? I bloody don't...

2) Terry was not dropped on 'moral' grounds, and it's not about English sensibilities - it's about our media and the fact that Capello is a wise man and didn't want his figurehead plagued by a media scrum during the tournament, the English press, unlike their European cousins, are bloodthirsty and love a good sex scandal, nobody is offended that he cheated (except his missus of course)

Ok, that's off my chest, moving on to this weekend...

Chelsea are considered red-hot favourites (BBC) now that the other big four teams are gone and it's only the fifth round, but the way I see it, there are still 16 teams and that gives quite good odds of Chelsea going out to a 'cupset' - normally we'd have another 2 or 3 of the big boys left, one upset is to be expected, so I just see Chelsea as the last pin standing - so I don't expect a waltz to the trophy from here, and although they only face a weakened Cardiff without Terry and Cole, they've been pretty patchy lately, a tricky away tie in the next two stages could give us an interesting result

So the big question is...who will win? Surely Villa, Spurs and City are the only serious contenders, and if not them it'd be an amazing result...Bolton for the cup?

Personally I think it's Villa's time

edit: and also - in response to the Euro 2012 qualifiers - is it just me or is it somewhat easier than the world cup draw, despite using the same system? There's only one extra spot to be won, but I don't really see any bad groups, England's hardest ask is mighty Switzerland, while Portugal only have to deal with Denmark...oh wait

Seriously though, I just can't see any really tasty groups, aside from the odd local derby few decent teams face a threat - although looking at it I think it's solely down to there not being three good sides in our group and Croatia effectively moving to the ridiculous group 2, maybe it's just a bit more even this time, but I'm sure France can cock up Bosnia and Romania...again

So in conclusion - 24 teams is going to be a joke...but Scotland will at least get a play-off

Terry Stripped Of Captaincy

It seems that Fabio had already made his mind up and todays meeting lasted just 12 minutes. I think it probably is the right decision, mostly because of his actions having an effect on an England team mate in Wayne Bridge.

Congratulations to Rio, who I suspected would be an England and Man Utd captain one day, and I also suspect he will want to quickly make people forget how he became Captain by putting in some strong performances.

Hopefully we can all focus on the World Cup now!

The John Terry Issue

Like most of you, I have been shaking my head at the revelations that have come to light regarding John Terry’s personal life, and more specifically it’s encroachment into Wayne Bridge’s personal life. The judge who presided of the attempted injunction made clear his feeling that John Terry had been more concerned about how this may affect his income through his sponsorships than he was of the feelings of those involved. The question now is this; should JT now carry on as England Captain?

I think when we ask this question the situation becomes murkier, because it wouldn’t matter if Terry resigned or was asked to step aside the problem becomes who would be asked to step into the breach? Well, that is open to debate, but the leading candidates are not exactly covering themselves in glory, certainly not if Terry is stripped of his captaincy because he is deemed not to be setting a healthy example of a role model off the pitch.

Let’s look at the potential candidates.

Rio Ferdinand. Missed a drugs test eight years ago despite receiving a reminder that very morning and still took himself off shopping for the afternoon… and turned his mobile off whilst out. All very fishy at the time, and perhaps Rio has won the benefit of the doubt from most it has left question marks over the whole situation. As far as sex scandals go, Rio was one of the players who gave new meaning to the term “Roasting” a few years back whilst on holiday in Ayia Napa with Frank Lampard and Kieron Dyer.

Steven Gerrard. Appeared in court last year on charges of assault, and though acquitted there was some released CCTV footage that sticks in the mind that seems not to hold up Gerrards version of having acted in self defence. I feel he is very lucky not to be in Prison.

Gary Neville. United Captain, but not only has Capello not picked him in any team yet, Neville is struggling to get selected for United and with his age is unlikely to be putting in a consistent run between now and the World Cup.

David Beckham. The appointment of Beckham would be a return to the past, not necessarily a welcomed one. He is someone who has struggled for fitness in recent years and has struggled to impress Capello consistently, both for England and for Real Madrid. He is a fringe player in todays England squad. Beckham was centre of his own sex scandal when he is alleged to have had an affair with Rebecca Loos. Then Manager Sven Goran-Eriksson didn’t seem to mind the allegations, but then again Sven was repeatedly revealed to be playing out the role of sugar daddy to a number of women behind the back of long term girlfriend, and paparazzi friend Nancy Dell’olio.

David James. About to be relegated. Not necessarily England’s first choice goalkeeper, so unlikely to figure in any discussions as new captain.

Frank Lampard. Well, as mentioned there are sex scandals, and then there are sex scandals where the English language is changed forever. This would appear not to have been an isolated incident so in the wake of one England captain stepping down in favour of another, Lampard may find he is not in contention for the same reasons.

Gareth Barry. Perhaps the leading choice based on probability of a start and lack of personal scandal in the media. With Barry as Captain in a four man midfield Capello may be forced to choose between Lampard and Gerrard for the role alongside him in the middle of the park. It is worth remembering that Barry was stripped of the Aston Villa Captaincy when he spoke out against Martin O’Neil and the club for turning down Liverpool’s advances. B as far as scandals go, not one that made the front pages.

Wayne Rooney. In arguably the best form of his career for Man United and if his metatarsals are strong enough he will be on the plane and a certain starter at the next World Cup. Two things do stand out against Rooney in the context of this debate; firstly Rooney has been centre of his own sex scandals, most remember ably with Patricia Tierney, or as most people will recall “ye auld Slapper”. Though, this is looked upon more in the context of a very young man thrust into the lime light acting out. Secondly, and this is more a personal thing, I don’t like Captains to be front players. I have always felt that the best captains are those in Central defence or Midfield because their position puts them in the best place to influence others.

So, back to Terry… Like I mentioned, I am in the camp that feels let down by his behaviour and is ashamed to see yet another England Captain embroiled in a tawdry affair. This is not new territory for Terry. He has confessed to a number of affairs before his marriage, and was involved in both a nightclub brawl which resulted in an arrest but also the shameful events around the September 11th attacks when a group of Chelsea footballers (including Frank Lampard) were drunkenly heckling American tourists about the attack in a bar near Heathrow. But, it would perhaps be somewhat hypocritical to strip Terry of the captaincy only to hand it to someone else whose scandals are just a little less fresh in the mind. Terry should be stripped of the captaincy but the general behaviour of the modern international player at the top of their game makes it impossible to choose somebody who both deserves to be the first name on the team sheet and also reflect exacting moral standards; or, at least has a better track record of keeping his pants on.

Yet again, England fans can feel a little aggrieved and pinned into a corner. Depending on how Terry plays this with the morally strict Capello, we will probably keep his place and the armband, but really it’s a reflection on the whole squad that there is nobody waiting in the wings in a position to assume this role given what has happened.

Easy?

I keep hearing comments to the tune of England getting an easy ride, admittedly this is mostly from Ozzies, not quite understanding that if they hadn’t gotten Germany they still would’ve got a Spain, Brazil, Holland or Italy…

It’s true England’s draw was pretty nice – but overwhelmingly ‘easy’? Let’s look at the figures

England have the US, rank: 14^th, top team from the second pot, along with Algeria (28^th) and Slovenia (33^rd)

I think a lot of this is down to there being little respect for the US, with little fear of them due to the fact that we’ve beaten them fairly easily multiple times in recent history, and it’s only the yanks - but nevertheless they are 14^th – people would probably be more wary of Ivory Coast, who are two places below the yanks, with Drogba in their ranks – now regardless of whether you think Ivory Coast are a better side, the facts remain that the US are highly ranked, and we can really only go on that – I’ve seen some managers say that Spain and the Netherlands have it easiest - we’re all biased here, and the only piece of information we can use here is *rank*, even if it is unrepresentative, it can’t fairly be based on our opinions on individual teams

If you look at England’s average rank of opponent it’s a healthy 25, with their lowest tam being 33^rd

By far the easiest draw was Italy, facing an average rank of 47, and not a single side within the top 30 – they face Slovakia, who are one place below our opponent Slovenia, Slovakia won the group but there’s little between the two, whipping boys New Zealand, and Paraguay, the second-worst team out of the Africa/South America pot

Argentina face Nigeria, South Korea and Greece – a middling African side, one of the weakest Asian teams, and Greece, who remain 12^th in the world somehow – average rank of 28.6, on an opinionated note I see little difference between the Argies and England here – both face some sides that could cause trouble but are unlikely to, I think people consider South Korea to be a good side after their exploits in 2002, but they lag behind Japan and Australia and are little threat really, hence why they are 52^nd in the world

The Dutch meanwhile face Denmark, a middling European side, Japan, and Cameroon – they face arguably the toughest side from Africa, but the other two are of minor concern, giving an average opponent rank of 26.6, I think they have it slightly tougher than England, but nothing devastating

Spain are the only side to face a tougher average opponent than England at 24.3 – with Chile a particular concern, few would view the Swiss as a major threat, but they are ranked 18^th, while lowly Honduras make up the numbers – tough, but again not much worse than England

If you look at it, England face a higher ranked side than Spain, France, Germany, and Italy

They also have no team below 33^rd – the strongest ‘weak’ team of any group

As I said, England picked the hardest team from pot two – certainly in a toss-up between the best European side and worst pot 2 side, and the top pot 2 team and worst European side, I’d take the latter, but it’s hardly our fault the top ranked side in there isn’t rated – had we got North Korea or New Zealand then we could view that as a free-ride, but we got a fairly reasonable draw – and no-one else comes close to the ease of Italy’s group

Averages aren’t always a fair way to measure this – but with Italy it’s fairly clear they have an easy ride, up against perennial first-round drop-outs Paraguay, the weakest European side and frigging New Zealand (and I’m not discounting averages to favour England, on that alone they have the second-hardest group)

In a couple of groups average doesn’t really seem fair – in Group A France are effectively the seeds, facing two top 20 sides in Uruguay and Mexico, and S.Africa – who skew the average, and as hosts should be feared, despite their rank

In Group D, Germany get an average of 26, but with Serbia and Australia in 20^th and 21^st respectively the group is competitive, although Germany should be big favourites - meanwhile Ghana are rated because of 2006, but still linger in 37^th, technically the weakest team from the Africa pot

And then of course, there’s Group G – the average is badly skewed by North Korea in 84^th but Brazil are facing a top ten side in Portugal, and the Ivory Coast in 16^th, three good sides after two spots

We got a good draw, but it wasn’t exceptionally favourable, I see only Brazil having a very tough group, and only Italy really getting lucky

England get USA, Algeria, Slovenia - France get lucky

Have to do it don't I

Here's the full world cup draw

Group G is the group of death, Group D is the group of death-lite

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
South Africa	Argentina	ENGLAND	Germany
Mexico	Nigeria	United States	Australia
Uruguay	South Korea	Algeria	Serbia
France	Greece	Slovenia	Ghana
Group E	Group F	Group G	Group H
Netherlands	Italy	Brazil	Spain
Denmark	Paraguay	North Korea	Switzerland
Japan	New Zealand	Ivory Coast	Honduras
Cameroon	Slovakia	Portugal	Chile

We will hopefully face Australia, Ghana or Serbia in the second round, we may then get a crack at France in the quarters, but we could also end up with a run of Germany and Argentina

We can't meet Brazil or Portugal til at least the semis, nor Italy, the Netherlands or Spain, what a shame...

International football, you love it

  Finally, we’re at the end of qualification, so I thought I’d look at the key battles in each group

Group 1

That’s the group with Portugal’s fading hopes – they are third, two points behind Sweden and have two home games against Hungary and Malta – Malta is three points guaranteed, so any hope for us opponents is in their game against 4th placed Hungary, should they win then Sweden probably need to beat leaders Denmark, a draw would put it down to goal difference, and they would need to score at least two more against Albania than Portugal beat Malta by to do that – so our best hopes are a Portugal upset at home to Hungary (Portugal are yet to win at home) or Sweden to beat their cousins in Copenhagen

Matches to watch out for:

Denmark v Sweden
Portugal v Hungary

Group 2

One of the most open groups, yet unfortunately also the worst group – Switzerland sit three ahead of both Greece and Latvia – smart money is on Greece to come second with two home ties against Latvia and minnows Luxembourg, but Latvia could cause an upset should they get a point in Greece and then beat bottom-placed Moldova at home, Switzerland are pretty much guaranteed at least second with a tie in Luxembourg, but may need a point off Israel’s visit – not too hard though

Matches to watch out for:

Greece v Latvia

Group 3

Northern Irish hopes lie with Slovakia beating Slovenia, and then a miracle when Slovenia go to San Marino, who are the worst performers in European (and possibly world) qualifying with a GD of -43, NI also need to go to the Czech Republic and somehow make up at least 5 goals – basically they need Slovakia to absolutely hammer Slovenia, who have only conceded four…and then San Marino to hold Slovenia to a draw, and beat the Czechs away – sorry, guys

Matches to watch out for:

Slovakia v Slovenia
Czech Rep v Poland

Group 4

Russia v Germany 10/10/09 – that’s it

Group 5

Spain have won already – Bosnia have a four point lead over Turkey, a win in Estonia will seal the deal for them, but they also face Spain, so Turkey can muscle in if they fail in Estonia, with a trip to Belgium and a home game against Armenia

Matches to watch out for

Estonia v Bosnia
Belgium v Turkey

Group 6

England still dominate proceedings – if they draw with or beat Ukraine then Croatia will almost certainly take second, should Ukraine win at home then they will take it

Matches to watch (online):

Ukraine v England

Group 7

Serbia are guaranteed a play-off, and are four points clear of France, but they have two straightforward home ties against Austria and the Faroes, so Serbia could do with a win over Romania at home, or Lithuania away to secure top spot

Matches to watch out for:

Serbia v Romania


Group 8

Italy have virtually secured the qualification, and Ireland are five points clear of Bulgaria with only two games left – a home win over Italy or Montenegro will do it – Italy are first though, so they may be sweating on that last game if Bulgaria win in Cyprus. Ireland are also still at risk of being the team to miss the play-offs, so need a point from that perspective as well

Matches to watch out for:

Ireland v Italy
Cyprus v Bulgaria

Who Is England's #1 Goalkeeper

I see that Paul Robinson and Joleon Lescott are out of the England squad and have been replaced by Gary Cahill and Joe Hart.

Hart's inclusion got me thinking. Back in the days of Sven, you could pretty much guess the squad selection and know 10 of the 11 that would be fielded. Now, things are less certain. I think Capello is a better boss, and I think England are a better team when selection is not guaranteed. The pain of the Sven era is that that was probably the strongest squad England have had for a very long time, but there was always issues, be it injuries or certain positions.

Anyway, there are a few positions now where selection is uncertain, the key one for me a year out from the World Cup is that of Goalkeeper. So, I thought since it has been a while I would pop up a poll and see who people think should be England's #1 by next summer.  Logical and illogical elaboration encouraged via the comments field.

For the record, my vote will be going in, and it is for Rob Green, who has been solid for some time now for West Ham, and will hopefully get some games and experience before the tournament to cement the #1 jersey. He is now, for me the logical mid to long-term candidate; Ben Foster with experience and games may change that opinion in the future. Fitness allowing Paul Robinson & David James would also be on the plane to South Africa.

The Business End (II)

Well that was fun

England whooped Croatia 5-1 - meaning we finally sealed qualification, and have now scored a ridiculous 31 goals in 8 games, leaving the Croats sweating on Ukraine's performance against us in Kiev

Scotland failed and went out in predictable style - Norway are through to the second round on GD

However I have some good news for the Scots - it seems that Norway are probably boned anyway - they are the only team to have finished playing and lie second from bottom in 'round two', Sweden need two points from a line up that includes Albania at home, so neither they or Portugal will likely finish below them

Ireland need a point (off Montenegro), Greece need a point off Latvia, and should Latvia win then they'll finish second and be ahead anyway, and the only other team they can rely on is Bosnia to lose 6 goals and not get a point off Spain or Estonia - So yeah, not good prospects and Scotland would have faced this rather nasty scenario themselves due to their equally mediocre results - so it was all their own fault anyway really

In other news, Spain finally qualified with an eight point cushion after a 3-0 drubbing of Estonia

Unfortunately Portugal won in Hungary - while Denmark drew in Albania, meaning they are still a point away from the victory, but Sweden did defeat Malta to keep their two point lead and keep it in their own hands - even if they probably will need something in Denmark

Northern Ireland also lost, effectively meaning they won't be making the play-offs, while Germany and Russia are now guaranteed their top two spots (like we didn't know that already) - that whole group is hanging on, and has always hung on, one game - the game in Russia on 10th October - if Russia win they qualify, anything else and Germany take the top spot

Over in South America and Ecuador did the business over Bolivia, Argentina are just kicking off and really need a win in Paraguay

Setanta in Administration

Following the news that Setanta lost its Premier League rights, it has now lost FA Cup and England games as it has gone into administration

Unsurprising to say the least, but the real issue is: who will pick up the spoils - will it be ESPN?

...All you can be sure of is that it won't be the BBC

Try to at least look excited

Well, it's international week again, and to be honest the usual banter over team sheets seems a bit drab - not surprising when we're playing Kazakhstan and Andorra, although to his credit it was some brilliant planning by Capello...from a realist's point of view

So anyway, I'm really only interested in a few things - who will Capello choose in goal? - he hasn't got the old donkey, so will he favour Carson, Green or Robinson - I choose Ben Foster, and also who will he give the striker's role too? Crouchy, Cole and Defoe are the real choices, and I just find it interesting to see who is at the front of his mind

Otherwise the tactics and approach are barely worth analysing - of course feel free to add any comments about it at the bottom

In the other Home Nations, Wales are against Azerbaijan, not that it really matters

The only other game is Ireland, who have a much bigger game against Bulgaria - I think they're good for a draw, any thoughts?

As for Scotland - not playing, but it's a very tight group and I think they need to watch out for Macedonia

So, with little real action, I instead chose to focus my own blog this week on.....gambling!

Personally I'm thinking Denmark to win group 1 (5/6) is a good bet - yes that's Portugal's group, and that's exactly why I think it's good - public opinion affects odds and it means Denmark are being rather overlooked I feel

For the short term - a Serbian double (Austria and Faroes) looks reasonable, as does the Netherlands and obviously England (not worth it though) - also Macedonia may be worth a punt

Any opinions?

Tarquin

*Also congrats to my adoptive nation Australia, as they are probably going to be officially the first nation in the World Cup within the next 24hrs - the qualifying has been ridiculously easy but meh...it's an achievement, sort of