It's time to qualify

...For one of those corrupt events, if you get my meaning

Anyway, my feelings about the laughable FIFA aside, England play Switzerland and finally may seal their qualification in what has been the longest drawn qualification process for yonks

Unfortunately only game five is being played, but should England beat Switzerland and Montenegro beat Bulgaria then it will officially knock out Wales and all but confirm the two top spots, simple as that

I don't see very good odds - Montenegro are not worth evens, they may win, but they are ultimately unreliable, despite their form

In slightly more fun groups, Germany have two away games in Austria and Azerbaijan, already with a five point lead two wins will effectively cement their obvious victory, personally I think Germany at 2/5 in Austria is pretty decent odds

Belgium v Turkey is crucial to these two teams - a home win is required to keep the Flemish in the hunt for second, this is a punt but Belgium at 5/4 is a reasonable tip as the Turks have been a bit off lately

Group B is typically Irish - three teams on 10 points after five games, Russia and Slovakia have pretty simple home games, the Irish need a result in Macedonia, to be honest it's not looking good with Russia having four home games left and Slovakia three

Group C is still open for Northern Ireland, Italy will cement their position with a win over Estonia and Slovenia have three to gain from the Faroes - that's it...two games (ok, three, but one is pointless)

The muddling French lead group D but still face the tougher tests, the trip to Belarus is probably the game of the round actually - I can dream, can't I? Belarus have won in France so I quite like 13/2 odds for the home side, they also have a home tie against Luxembourg, so that'll keep the pressure on

Bosnia remain in the hunt, playing Albania and then travelling to Romania - I doubt it'll come to anything, France are surely top two, but they do love to try!

The Dutch have won six of six, but have a rest and haven't got a huge lead just yet, but are surely group winners, San Marino will be handing three points to Finland and Hungary, Sweden are going to Moldova and then face neighbours Finland - grudge match?? Not really, second is Hungary or Sweden - do you really care?

Group F remains tight, and will remain so until the end - Croatia at 1/3 over Georgia isn't bad, Greece have their own banker, and arguably so do Israel, so it's probably as you were - Croatia and Greece all the way

Skipping to H, where Norway are ahead of Portugal, which is nice - all I can say is hooway the Norge! A draw would be very nice in Lisbon, Denmark are probably out of it at this point but should be able to beat their cousins in Iceland and may be able to screw over Portugal in October - worrying times for the greasy one even if they beat Noway

It all comes down to Denmark - assuming Portugal win all three easier games they will go in on 16 points, if Norway can beat Cyprus and Iceland they would realistically need a point in Copenhagen

Draw at 4/1 anybody?

In Scotland's mini-group there's a whole one game, Lithuania at 1/2 is not that bad, if uninspiring, Spain win the group, yay

Update

Well, that was interesting...and profitable


I knew someone would draw out of the home nations - and it was NI, not a bad little earner (this was a bonus, as I decided to use all those free bets I get from Beat Victor)

But in more realistic betting chances my multiples came through, Spain scared me witless until I realised they kicked off at 9, not 8, and they scored 2 minutes after the break - I took an enhanced multiplier and gambled on Portugal, despite my previous concerns, but I rightly stayed away from Italy - got 12/5 on them, the Dutch and Germans

The only loss was Serbia in my 10-way multiplier, a shame, but that's accounted for to start with anyway

A shame that I missed the boat on Montenegro, but I stick with the contention that they weren't worth the price of 17/10 - this has however, lengthened the English odds slightly - shall look at that tomorrow

Group G is rather interesting now, 9 points for the minnows out of three games is impressive by any standards, and formidable when you think 24 is the max, outside of the obvious favourites, only Bulgaria have even got any points from the opening three matches - Wales and/or Switzerland will remedy that in their game on Tuesday

Looking at permutations, one has to expect English success - and Switzerland would still seem to be the obvious choice for second, having three home games left and England done with, so Montenegro will need at least another 3 or 4 points to stand a chance, stand out games for them will be Switzerland away, which may be a crucial final game, Bulgaria at home and a trip to Cardiff - one win and a draw should do it I think, unless of course they beat us and...

Wales are dead and buried as far as I'm concerned - still to play England, they lose in Basel then that's it frankly

The draw for Northern Ireland is an excellent point they were expected, on paper, to not have - and the group remains ridiculously open, I was wrong about Serbia - so I'm glad I mostly opted against betting on them, a home loss to Estonia is excellent news for NI, one hopes - a win in the Faroe Islands is needed to keep ahead of the pack, that will leave them with seven points from nine, and four home games out of seven, with the group favourites already held - looks good, as always...

Ireland's 3-2 loss to Russia was not helpful, but not catastrophic, particularly as Slovakia fell to Armenia - this leaves Ireland in the predictable position of needing to battle Slovakia...and guess where they're going next week? That's right, the much maligned Bratislava, avoid defeat, then do well at home, overcoming the tricky Macedonians on the way, and they can get a play-off

Scotland's loss in the Czech Rep is arguably not too bad, the draw with Lithuania was worse - but fortunately they also won in Prague (so maybe it should be Lithuania we're fearing), leaving it open - both sides have to face the champions twice, and I think once again this will be a very low scoring group behind Spain, but Scotland have the home advantage now - they need home form against Lithuania and the Czechs, and a banker in the micro-state - three games, that's it, if Spain hold up and they beat the Czechs and Lithuania then they cannot be overtaken

Meanwhile, away from the Isles, Norway motored on with another crucial away win to keep a five point lead over Portugal who did ultimately defeat the Danes, for Norway to win the group they probably need to win all three home games, if they can hold off the Danes they should at least secure a play-off this time (they were eliminated rather cruelly for being the worst qualifier last year) - conversely, Denmark will need to beat Norway both times and hope Portugal can also beat Norway at home, and it may all boil down to their final game at home to Portugal - who have created their own deficit and may need every single match to be a win now, it's pretty much wide open! From our perspective, on Tuesday Denmark need to ensure victory against Cyprus, while a Portugal slip up in Iceland would help everyone

In group D, all major rivals drawing paves the way for a French comeback, for whatever reason they play tomorrow - there's little I can say, on paper they should top the group, but it's totally unpredictable

Groups E and F remain as expected, as does the Germans' (A) - that looks wrapped already, with Turkey a likely second


Now I need my investment bets to come through next week

Ireland face a challenge

The news is that Ireland will not be seeded for the UEFA play-off draw, they were never likely to be, but still...

I had not actually realised that the teams were not originally going to be seeded - apparently the decision wasn't made until September 29th (obviously I somehow overlooked that before) which frankly smacks of unfairness

As Shay Given said, if FIFA had decided to seed in the first place then fine - but to do it when France and Portugal were looking precarious is a joke, the teams were already seeded once, why should they get a second crack at the whip? Seriously, I want to see some justification - they've all gone through the same process and the 'big' teams have cocked up, now they are rewarded and protected by UEFA/FIFA

I remember when we fell foul of Russia before Euro 2008, there was much hopeful talk of us being given a lifeline - England too big to go down and all that, money from the fans etc... it was complete fantasy of course, but I think we have a bit of a case for our noses being out of joint now

I wish Ireland all the best and they are perfectly capable of beating France, Portugal, Greece or Russia - and Ukraine will be a match for any of those teams, I hope that France or Portugal - by no means in their position because of a fluke, get Ukraine or Ireland - I think Russia would be the biggest test

We shall find out on Monday at 1pm

Well, that's that

And so, from Europe we have virtually all our teams settled

Qualifiers:

Denmark, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, Italy, Netherlands, almost certainly Switzerland, and probably Slovakia

The play-offs will, I believe see the top four ranked sides vs the bottom four ranked sides and so will likely be:

Russia
France
Greece
Portugal

vs

Bosnia
Ireland
Ukraine
Slovenia

Turkey, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and Croatia are the main casualties this time around - there are seven teams in the FIFA top 30 that won't be making even the play-offs - all only from Europe, the best team not going from anywhere else will probably be Egypt (32nd) - is it just me or is Europe the only federation with any sort of competitive system?

I rather handily got a double winnings offer from Betfair on Spain Argentina and Portugal at the weekend, so I will be 're-investing' in a multiplier for the final round

I've gone for a 9-way accumulator - Ukraine, Russia, England, Germany, Italy, Croatia, Portugal, Romania and Greece

Measly odds individually but combined it's about 11/4

Platini To Open Debate On Transfer Window

UEFA President Michel Platini has said he is keen to meet with FIFA to open a debate regarding the future of the Transfer Window.

The debate is more about tweaking the system rather than scrapping it.

Do Football Banter Readers prefer the current system - or should more wide ranging changes be made?