Only one team can win

Watching Gary Lineker's 'Can England win the world cup?' where a bunch of talking heads give their opinion on why we bombed in South Africa so spectacularly, I have to point out - it's seven games every four years, and only one team out of 32 can win!

This makes it a rather difficult affair to predict -we can talk about how good Spain are right now, but that does not make it a foregone conclusion that they were always going to win, the best teams don't always win

I don't claim we went out on luck, we were shocking, or indeed that Spain won on luck - but this tournament was a rarity in that nearly everyone's tip actually won - they were overwhelming favourites and the best team, and they actually won

Imagine if they had lost to a decent Dutch or German side? Perfectly possible, and another miserable defeat in Spain's long, long record of failure, one goal in any of those four knock-out games could have swung it against them and now they would be picking over the bones of why their own 'golden generation' missed their chance, just as we did in 86, 90...and 06

Instead, we focus on how great Spain are, and forget entirely that most World Cup results hang on a couple of incidents and a bit of luck - who seriously tipped Italy in 2006? And who (of non-Italian descent) thinks they were the best side?

It's perfectly fine to look at Spain's focus on Spanish players and their investment in local talent, all good points, as is a winter break - but they won't guarantee you a cup, they won't even guarantee you one from five, and this whole tactical issue surrounding Spanish 'technique' and English 'power' is nonsense

Holding the ball and stroking it around the pitch may have worked in this world cup, but Spain could have just as easily fallen flat on their faces with a bad draw or a dodgy penalty, they were technically very good at the past two cups - but they fell to some very odd results in both tournaments, Italy went on to win 2006 against a more favoured German side

The irony is, Lineker then went on to pour praise on an admittedly very good German side - who play with pace and youth, not Spanish technique, tipping them for 2014

Great potential from a young side, but that's all it is, just potential - they will certainly be in the mix in 2014, they always are, but if they don't win, what then? How are they any different to us in 2002-6?

If he had been talking about England's prospects there would be a word for that: 'cockiness'

The fact is, the Germans haven't won in twenty years despite five top 8 finishes and 3 consecutive semi finals (one being at home) - in this event coming second is the same as coming thirty-second, you may get respect, but not a winner's medal, failure in 2014 would be 24 'years of hurt' for a side who are much better at winning these things than us

So in truth, I'd rather crash out of the cup in the second round with a run of abysmal performances than come a heroic second or third, if we actually want to win rather than enjoy the experience of ultimately losing then a bit of pain is worth it to make the national side pull their collective finger out

So can we win - yes, of course we bloody can, if you're good enough to beat anyone on the day then you can win a world cup

US shock Spain, and everyone else

Well I didn't see that coming...

The US beat *Spain* pretty convincingly, now that they may celebrate

I still stand by my earlier comments, but this is at least an achievement, and certainly makes up for the group stages

As for Spain, it was pretty much the same team that beat us, it just went a bit awry, they have still beaten us and have a 100% record in qualification, but it shows they are beatable and can give us hope that they may not be invincible come the World Cup

The pundits are blaming it on them only having played the likes of New Zealand and Iraq and not being ready for a technically decent, if not brilliant, team

Anybody can win on their day...

England Performance

Not a great performance tonight from England, largely they seem to have maintained some of the discipline that was showing late in 2008, but showed very little in the way of invention.

Spain did not need to go above third gear, and were assured in possession. They never really looked in any danger. They were hungry to be in possession and quite plainly are much more productive holding possession. England seemed rushed at times when in possession and just gave the ball away.

England were not dire, but there was an obvious difference in class that Capello will need to work on. The second goal for Spain will be played over a few times. England are much improved on the Steve McClaren era, but are nowhere near to the standard required to win a major tournament.

I may be being a little harsh, Spain are the best team in the world at the moment and England were without Gerrard, Ferdinand, Joe Cole, and Wayne Rooney.

England, in my opinion are lacking credibility in a number of positions. Hopefully the emergence in the next year of Ashley Young and Gabriel Abonglahor will help address two such problems, aided in future squads with the impressive James Milner. Yes, England are likely looking to Martin o'Neil and Aston Villa for the next stage in the teams improvement. The return of the aforementioned big players and also, later in the year, Owen Hargreaves will offer a Capello a much improved squad from which to launch a bid for the World Cup.

Not a great evening, but at least I don't have to listen to another pointless McClaren post-match interview!!

Your views on England and Spain are welcomed.