I like those odds!

So England qualified with room to spare, as I always maintained

OK, technically we did need a point in the fortress of Montenegro - but that's relying on Montenegro winning in Switzerland, after they've already secured the play off - big whoop, it's been pretty straightforward, despite all the usual melodrama from the tv pundits - I predict a five or six point win in the end

Granted a stupid draw at Wembley with the Swiss was unfortunate, but otherwise the only hurdle has been the mighty minnows - and well done to them for defeating three larger nations in qualifying, they deserve the second spot - I look forward to a rematch in group H next year

Anyway, ignoring Rooney's latest drama and a whingeing Neville, let's look at one remaining set of fixtures

Five teams have now sewn up their groups, and Sweden and Montenegro have cemented their play offs

Group A is a bit of a doozie - Belgium lead but need a win in Germany to prevent Turkey taking the spot as they face the useless Azerbaijan -

My tips, home wins all round and Turkey to get second

Group B: Russia have effectively qualified with a point against Andorra required for the official victory, the real interest is in Ireland who only need to avoid defeat against third-placed Armenia

My tip: surely Ireland through to another play-off, at least a draw, if not a win

Group C: Only Serbia can make the difference here, only a win in Slovenia will knock off Estonia, who are waiting on results - you do care right?

My tip: Serbia at 5/6 ain't bad considering Slovenia's home record

Group D is a top of the table clash as France tackle Bosnia - avoiding defeat will be good enough, I'm tipping France to at least draw...surely

E is finished - I expect the Dutch will maintain their 100% record in Sweden, as neither have anything left to play for, I'm backing Hungary over Finland and Moldova over some minnows

F is tricky - Greece lead Croatia by two heading to Georgia for at least a point, Croatia should beat Latvia but can only win if Greece lose - otherwise it's as you were, Israel get three points in Malta

I expect Greece will win the group - even if they don't win the game

G, as I'm sure you know is done - I'm tipping Bulgaria over Wales and the Swiss over Montenegro

H is the fun group - three teams still in it, although Norway need some ludicrous scorelines to knock off Portugal, otherwise it's a straight top two clash - Denmark need to win at home to take the group, otherwise they'll be in the play-offs

My tip: I think Denmark might win, be a close game though - surely Norway will beat Cyprus, qualification is unlikely but they might as well live in hope

Group I: The much anticipated Spain v Scotland game dominates here - you can make up your own minds about this one - considering the joy around their sole away win in Liechtenstein I can't be that confident, but the hope lies in Lithuania, who have so far only been defeated at home by Spain and won in Prague - Scotland don't need to do a thing if they win, but if they draw the Czechs go through on head to head - I think the best bet for Scotland would be a draw in both ties

Good luck to them I say, been a while since Scotland had any luck - the odds from my title are 20/1 for the win, 7/1 for the draw, by the way

I think short odds on Czech republic are a bit harsh to be honest - the draw is a decent 3/1, and home win over 5/1 - not bad I think

It's time to qualify

...For one of those corrupt events, if you get my meaning

Anyway, my feelings about the laughable FIFA aside, England play Switzerland and finally may seal their qualification in what has been the longest drawn qualification process for yonks

Unfortunately only game five is being played, but should England beat Switzerland and Montenegro beat Bulgaria then it will officially knock out Wales and all but confirm the two top spots, simple as that

I don't see very good odds - Montenegro are not worth evens, they may win, but they are ultimately unreliable, despite their form

In slightly more fun groups, Germany have two away games in Austria and Azerbaijan, already with a five point lead two wins will effectively cement their obvious victory, personally I think Germany at 2/5 in Austria is pretty decent odds

Belgium v Turkey is crucial to these two teams - a home win is required to keep the Flemish in the hunt for second, this is a punt but Belgium at 5/4 is a reasonable tip as the Turks have been a bit off lately

Group B is typically Irish - three teams on 10 points after five games, Russia and Slovakia have pretty simple home games, the Irish need a result in Macedonia, to be honest it's not looking good with Russia having four home games left and Slovakia three

Group C is still open for Northern Ireland, Italy will cement their position with a win over Estonia and Slovenia have three to gain from the Faroes - that's it...two games (ok, three, but one is pointless)

The muddling French lead group D but still face the tougher tests, the trip to Belarus is probably the game of the round actually - I can dream, can't I? Belarus have won in France so I quite like 13/2 odds for the home side, they also have a home tie against Luxembourg, so that'll keep the pressure on

Bosnia remain in the hunt, playing Albania and then travelling to Romania - I doubt it'll come to anything, France are surely top two, but they do love to try!

The Dutch have won six of six, but have a rest and haven't got a huge lead just yet, but are surely group winners, San Marino will be handing three points to Finland and Hungary, Sweden are going to Moldova and then face neighbours Finland - grudge match?? Not really, second is Hungary or Sweden - do you really care?

Group F remains tight, and will remain so until the end - Croatia at 1/3 over Georgia isn't bad, Greece have their own banker, and arguably so do Israel, so it's probably as you were - Croatia and Greece all the way

Skipping to H, where Norway are ahead of Portugal, which is nice - all I can say is hooway the Norge! A draw would be very nice in Lisbon, Denmark are probably out of it at this point but should be able to beat their cousins in Iceland and may be able to screw over Portugal in October - worrying times for the greasy one even if they beat Noway

It all comes down to Denmark - assuming Portugal win all three easier games they will go in on 16 points, if Norway can beat Cyprus and Iceland they would realistically need a point in Copenhagen

Draw at 4/1 anybody?

In Scotland's mini-group there's a whole one game, Lithuania at 1/2 is not that bad, if uninspiring, Spain win the group, yay

Too funny

Gareth Bale...

Truly the Welsh are the most cursed of all Brits

Anyway, it's been a while since we've had some qualifiers, and frankly thanks to the small groups the number of games has been far too low - eight games in two years?

Still, we must make do

As I've said before, England's group is pretty much sewn up - Montenegro have left the door wide open for England, assuming they can avoid defeat in Cardiff (that's me being pessimistic)

Bulgaria play Switzerland in a technically crucial game for both - only the winner will come away with any chance, a draw would be virtual suicide - I'd favour Bulgaria for home form, they are physically tougher, but considering the only points either have got were from Wales there's not much in it

In Group A Germany have a whole round to play Kazakhstan at home (why?? Who negotiated their fixtures?) and continue on their road to full points

Austria will duke it out with Belgium and then go to Turkey, and Belgium get an easy three points at home in what should be a very interesting tight race for second...*yawn*

Group B is the Irish, who always seem to do their level best to fall at the last hurdle, they would do well if Armenia held up Russia, while they have a Macedonia game to not cock up a la England, Slovakia get three points in northern Spain/southern France

In the typically favourable Italy group NI have Serbia away and Slovenia at home, surely four points minimum is required, I'd fancy Serbia in Estonia and my money is on Slovenia when they host Italy

In group D France do their level best to secure a play-off just for the hell of it, but will, in yet another odd piece of scheduling, head to Luxembourg in their sole tie, it's the two away ties in September that will be their downfall - again with the weird fixtures, Albania v Belarus is a 'key' game, how interesting - Bosnia should get three off Romania, who themselves get an easy three off the minnows after

In group E it's all windmills and clogs as the Netherlands face a double with Hungary, I would like to see Sweden keep up with a win over Moldova

Group F is the one that shows the twisted process that is seeding...but anyway Croatia go to Georgia, Greece get three in Malta, do you care about Israel v Georgia? There's only two teams of note here

Skipping England to H - Norway remain 2 points ahead of the cheats with a game in hand - they play Denmark in a no-win situation for myself, I guess Norway would be a better result, Cyprus v Iceland is at least guaranteed to yield more points than the two teams have combined

Finally to Spain and Scotland in I, you may have noticed a welcome lack of Scottish news this week - mainly because they're not playing, should Spain win against the Czechs and then win in, gasp, Lithuania they will have effectively won the group, the Czechs can push on for second with a win over Liechtenstein - leaving Scotland with the unlikely task of at least winning their two remaining home ties in September

This rounds up the rather dull weekend of action

Wales can win...

Yes Gareth, Wales can beat England

Just as they could have beaten Bulgaria, Switzerland and Montenegro...or Ireland, Sweden or Croatia

For the sake of fairness they have won (or indeed, not lost) one game during that time - Luxembourg!!

Ttuly, they are capable of anything on their day

Gah

Cheers, England

My own fault for betting on England - I broke my own golden rule

Still made a profit, thankyous go to Spain, the Netherlands, France and Armenia....(yes Armenia, Capello!), and offset with a quick in-play on 0-0 at half time, but alas, not the most productive of international breaks...

Anyway, besides my own personal misfortunes, it wasn't very good was it?

It's true the ref had a mare - blatant handball in the box, highly physical opponents and what was the yellow card for Ashley Young about? We're playing a side who are chopping us down left right and centre and he penalises him because he's in the box...could've just played on - he had a better view of the sodding handball!

But excuses aside, we were lacking ideas - to their credit Montenegro kept us quiet well, but I think we were lacking ambition - players weren't getting forward enough, Rooney looked off (again) and in general we were frustrated, fair play to the Montenegrans(/groes?) for making the match as about as exciting to Bolton v Huddersfield - not really in the spirit of the game, but we see it every week so I can't complain

And having the ever-miserable Gareth Southgate on to cheer us up on ITV after was not a good move - he said we will now have to go to Montenegro (our final game) and win to qualify

Right...this is based on the minnows of the group doing as well as they already have, granted they've done exceedingly well, but are we really expecting them to win every game?

It's a blow, yes, but we are level-pegging with them, and are massive favourites for the group (and I'll be checking those odds now btw), if this were Russia or Croatia again, Southgate would have a point, but to blindly expect the minnows to head to Switzerland and Cardiff and claim a total six points is a bit of a leap

and as I said before, Montenegro probably need a handful of points to be assured a top two spot, and we are virtually assured a top two because if Montenegro do screw up, they've split the table for us, and if they do well, assuming we don't have a shocker, the other sides are again, kept down

Even if we are basing this on the facts we currently have, Southgate said we need to win in Montenegro - no we don't - they have scored three and conceded none, we have scored seven and conceded one - draw, and we win on GD

He also said second isn't a guaranteed spot - true it isn't, but in reverse to the previous campaign for the world cup rather than the worst of nine being cruelly dumped before the play-offs, the best of the nine will gain an automatic spot - so we don't need to cry just yet

This loss of two points essentially means we have no wiggle room - we need to beat Switzerland and Wales

But do we need to win in Montenegro? I doubt it, and if we do go in needing a win I'll give you my measly winnings from tonight (and that is my last bet on England)

Who would've thought this group would be between Montenegro and England...

Calm down dear

...It's only a draw

In the Faroes

Bad, yes, but will it condemn NI? Probably not, they still have seven games left and an away draw is not the worst thing that can happen to you, both Serbia and Slovenia have lost at home and are faring worse than the Irish/British

Fact is, NI are rubbish on the road, always are - they should have won this, it's a three-point gift for most teams, but we are basing their fate on what we expect to happen

Do you hear many expecting Italy to slip because they drew in Belfast? No because the pundits expect other results, Northern Ireland do not have the luxury of arrogance, but the result is the same - four home games, all perfectly winnable, win them and they qualify

It's in their hands

Odds will lengthen - this group's wide open

Update

Well, that was interesting...and profitable


I knew someone would draw out of the home nations - and it was NI, not a bad little earner (this was a bonus, as I decided to use all those free bets I get from Beat Victor)

But in more realistic betting chances my multiples came through, Spain scared me witless until I realised they kicked off at 9, not 8, and they scored 2 minutes after the break - I took an enhanced multiplier and gambled on Portugal, despite my previous concerns, but I rightly stayed away from Italy - got 12/5 on them, the Dutch and Germans

The only loss was Serbia in my 10-way multiplier, a shame, but that's accounted for to start with anyway

A shame that I missed the boat on Montenegro, but I stick with the contention that they weren't worth the price of 17/10 - this has however, lengthened the English odds slightly - shall look at that tomorrow

Group G is rather interesting now, 9 points for the minnows out of three games is impressive by any standards, and formidable when you think 24 is the max, outside of the obvious favourites, only Bulgaria have even got any points from the opening three matches - Wales and/or Switzerland will remedy that in their game on Tuesday

Looking at permutations, one has to expect English success - and Switzerland would still seem to be the obvious choice for second, having three home games left and England done with, so Montenegro will need at least another 3 or 4 points to stand a chance, stand out games for them will be Switzerland away, which may be a crucial final game, Bulgaria at home and a trip to Cardiff - one win and a draw should do it I think, unless of course they beat us and...

Wales are dead and buried as far as I'm concerned - still to play England, they lose in Basel then that's it frankly

The draw for Northern Ireland is an excellent point they were expected, on paper, to not have - and the group remains ridiculously open, I was wrong about Serbia - so I'm glad I mostly opted against betting on them, a home loss to Estonia is excellent news for NI, one hopes - a win in the Faroe Islands is needed to keep ahead of the pack, that will leave them with seven points from nine, and four home games out of seven, with the group favourites already held - looks good, as always...

Ireland's 3-2 loss to Russia was not helpful, but not catastrophic, particularly as Slovakia fell to Armenia - this leaves Ireland in the predictable position of needing to battle Slovakia...and guess where they're going next week? That's right, the much maligned Bratislava, avoid defeat, then do well at home, overcoming the tricky Macedonians on the way, and they can get a play-off

Scotland's loss in the Czech Rep is arguably not too bad, the draw with Lithuania was worse - but fortunately they also won in Prague (so maybe it should be Lithuania we're fearing), leaving it open - both sides have to face the champions twice, and I think once again this will be a very low scoring group behind Spain, but Scotland have the home advantage now - they need home form against Lithuania and the Czechs, and a banker in the micro-state - three games, that's it, if Spain hold up and they beat the Czechs and Lithuania then they cannot be overtaken

Meanwhile, away from the Isles, Norway motored on with another crucial away win to keep a five point lead over Portugal who did ultimately defeat the Danes, for Norway to win the group they probably need to win all three home games, if they can hold off the Danes they should at least secure a play-off this time (they were eliminated rather cruelly for being the worst qualifier last year) - conversely, Denmark will need to beat Norway both times and hope Portugal can also beat Norway at home, and it may all boil down to their final game at home to Portugal - who have created their own deficit and may need every single match to be a win now, it's pretty much wide open! From our perspective, on Tuesday Denmark need to ensure victory against Cyprus, while a Portugal slip up in Iceland would help everyone

In group D, all major rivals drawing paves the way for a French comeback, for whatever reason they play tomorrow - there's little I can say, on paper they should top the group, but it's totally unpredictable

Groups E and F remain as expected, as does the Germans' (A) - that looks wrapped already, with Turkey a likely second


Now I need my investment bets to come through next week

Football is way more fun than benefits

Well, I'm all tired out from the stupid child benefit cut story, so I'm having a look at the upcoming European qualifiers, see if we can't find some good bets while I'm at it

Group A is set for a top of the table clash between the Germans and the Turks - Germany are the natural favourites for the match, and the group, and you can't really question that - can't really see much from Austria, and Belgium have already lost to Turkey, whom they did beat at home in the world cup qualifying - but came five points behind - not seeing a lot of value in the markets, I could see Belgium top 2 finish at 11/2, as Turkey are 1/4 - so you could offset (i.e. put four on Turkey you'll get a pound, put that pound on Belgium you'll win £5.50) longer odds than the weaker Austrians (who've won 100%!), but I doubt it's worth it

Matches are fairly run of the mill

Group B is interesting - Ireland's always are, fancy a punt on Ireland at home to Russia at 13/8? No didn't think so, I'd want at least double, Armenia could draw against Slovakia, which would be nice for the Emerald Isle - Ireland's trip to Slovakia afterwards is vital, they need to avoid a loss in both games really - Andorra are predictably boring, the bookies are offering shite odds on all three favourites...how dull - could back Russia or Ireland as winner I guess

Group C is Northern Ireland's and is predictably open - with Italy, Serbia and Slovenia making up the main opposition, an away with in Ljubljana bodes well for them - their good home form will give them a shot, an important, but let's face it not must-win game against Italy is first, but surely the trip to the Faroe Islands must be won, Italy V Serbia is also important, NI fans will want a home win, I presume

Betting wise - 9/2 for a home win looks reasonable considering Italy are fairly weak, but maybe a draw at 11/4 would be a more appropriate punt, do you think they'll make the top 2 over Serbia? At 39/11 I think they're undervalued considering they've already got a decent away win - maybe Serbia as group winners as an outsider?

Now group D is rather interesting - a flailing France team and no discernible big teams make it highly unpredictable - how is it they always get second teams like Romania and Bosnia? Yet currently the weaker two sides - Albania and Belarus, head the group! France play Romania and have a banker against Luxembourg - six points should be expected...but then teams like France can throw away points and still qualify

The bookies are undecided on Albania and Bosnia, both offering similar prices - 2/1 on an undefeated home side looks good to me - Luxembourg over France at 20/1?? Group winner is pretty open - the bookies have France as big favourites, as they always do - but the punters triumphed substantially on their ignorance pre-2010 so we can again - Romania at 4/1, but surely Bosnia are a decent bet at 11/2 as well - play-offs last time in a group with Spain, they are underrated IMO - top 2 at 2/1 looks pretty good to me as well

In group E Sweden sit pretty after two easy home ties, but will go to Amsterdam and the Dutch are naturally big favourites, Sweden a likely second, in my view - and no good odds. In the matches only Finland v Hungary is open, just above evens - personally I quite like the Netherlands at 6/11 over Sweden - over 50% of your stake is pretty good for that surety

Group F is somewhat of a consolation for Croatia after 2010 (where's ours for 08...), Israel and Greece make up the main threat, although not losing their trip to the Middle East is fairly vital, Greece against Israel will also be important...if you actually care. Fancy aforementioned Croatia at 6/4?

Croatia to win the group at 8/11 is again a fairly dull price, but a sound investment, I think - Israel in a top 2 for 28/17 is about the best I can see otherwise

Group G time...

Seriously...1/5 is the best we can get on England topping the group? This is why you never get good value on England - seriously far too much attention on it - Germany are 3/10, the Netherlands are 2/5 - only Spain give worse odds, admittedly Montenegro have really helped sure it up for us, but one in five? That said - you interested in the Swiss at 19? However second is quite open, Switzerland may be alright at 13/10 and are Wales really as bad as 7/1? Probably - personally I would avoid Montenegro at an inflated 6/4 - unless a serious shock occurs that will get longer by next week

Oh well, despite the outright odds being daft the England match is rather reasonable at 1/4 - 25% back on a game England will win, you can thank the Welsh for that - it probably would've been 1/15 before the group started - Wales against Bulgaria is hard to call, so you can opt for either at just shy of 2/1 - Switzerland at 1/2 against the Welsh again looks a good value banker considering Wales' away form - although they do like to block the goal - fancy Montenegro at home in their first tie? 17/10 is a bit shorter than I'd like

Moving on to Group H, Norway sit five points clear of favourites Portugal, while Denmark are once again ahead of the greasy ones (after one game..) - the bookies still haven't cottoned on and once again they offer a bargain at 2/1, slightly worse than last year, but christ, you'd think they'd get it by now

However, maybe put the chequebook away for now - Denmark visit Portugal first and a fairly predictable loss, or even draw will push those odds in your favour - of course should they lose at home this won't happen, so it's a judgement call - I don't expect Denmark to win, even if Cyprus did put four past them...However it's unsurprising that I have disdain for odds of 8/13 for a home win - a draw at 3/1 or Denmark at nearly 6/1 if you feel like a punt

Denmark's game against Cyprus is of little interest, although the time to get the good odds is probably between the two games, but Cyprus Norway may offer something if you fancy the Norges...or indeed the Cypriots, the best opportunity may be the Iceland Portugal game however - the weakest side in the group maybe, but 7/1 for a home win is tasty, or just over 3/1 on the draw - but I'd watch Portugal's form under new manager Bento in the first game before making that choice

Group I - or should that be group 'aye' (sorry), the Scots are doing well with only two points dropped from two games, despite the win being that rather scary game against Liechtenstein - however they stand zero chance against Spain and must look to second along with the Czechs and Lithuania, they play in Prague first - avoiding a loss is pretty important in such a small group which also happens to have the champions in it, but an it wouldn't necessarily be the end - Spanish victory over Lithuania, and Liechtenstein holding the Czechs would be preferable, they don't play again til September - I doubt they want to be in third or fourth for 11 months

A draw in Prague could be on the cards (45/17), and indeed a draw in the micro-state at 13/2 may be good value (I say good 'value'...not 'likely') - the outright odds for this group are rather shocking, clearly too mediocre for the bookies - Spain offer a 50% return in Glasgow, might be worth it

1. Montenegro, 2. England

You won't read this very often

Montenegro top group G, much as Blackpool once topped the league

Hopefully they won't by about 9.30 BST, but still, England might throw it away...

This could be a lifeline for Wales, depending on how you look at it - supposedly Montnegro are the weakest side, taking three points in Bulgaria could be vital for Wales' hopes, who also need to beat them in their next home game

That is, of course, assuming Wales can actually get to six points - and that Montenegro are the weakest side, from what I've seen, they're better than Switzerland too, but maybe, just maybe we'll beat them at Wembley in a month (and I'm struggling to understand that, why is that a solitary game?)

In other news, Portugal are behind in Norway - not a death sentence but once again they may take this to the wire, 2010 qualifying saw useless bookies offer long odds on realistic favourites Denmark and I made a tidy profit, and guess who is in their group (H) yet again??

In group B, Ireland are looking good after an away win last week and Slovakia won in Russia tonight, they'll be in contention, again

France, already with a home loss to Belarus in tow, are currently struggling against Bosnia, two home games against Luxembourg and Romania up next will surely decide their fate, 3/10 to qualify? Lay, people, lay!

And...Scotland are now behind to Liechtenstein, at home, seriously - and they're already in Spain's group (I), unlucky my arse...Liechtenstein!

EURO 2012 Qualifying Groups Announced

Group A
Germany
Turkey
Austria
Belgium
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan

Group B
Russia
Slovakia
Republic of Ireland
FYR Macedonia
Armenia
Andorra

Group C
Italy
Serbia
Northern Ireland
Slovenia
Estonia
Faroe Islands

Group D
France
Romania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Belarus
Albania
Luxembourg

Group E
Netherlands
Sweden
Finland
Hungary
Moldova
San Marino

Group F
Croatia
Greece
Israel
Latvia
Georgia
Malta

Group G
England
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Wales
Montenegro

Group H
Portugal
Denmark
Norway
Cyprus
Iceland

Group I
Spain
Czech Republic
Scotland
Lithuania
Liechtenstein

Bye to finals (hosts)
Poland
Ukraine